The Fiscal Risk Report accompanying the 2026 state budget estimates the government’s potential exposure from the natural gas import terminal at Vasilikos at more than €400 million in possible compensation payments.
The project (FSRU–jetty–onshore facilities) concentrates a series of technical, legal, financial, and regulatory risks that, if materialized, increase its fiscal footprint.
The arbitration
A year ago, the project’s business plan outlined a series of risks answering the question of how potential liabilities beyond €400 million might arise.
The project (FSRU, jetty, onshore terminal) encapsulates technical, legal, financial, and regulatory risks that, if realized, amplify fiscal exposure through subsidies, state contributions, and repayment of EU funds. KPMG noted that completion requires parallel tender procedures, staffing with qualified personnel, and overcoming shortages in specialized equipment.
In April 2024, the total cost for completion was estimated at €136.5 million, broken down as follows:
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FSRU (ship): €10 million
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Jetty and mooring: €68.5 million
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Onshore terminal: €57.5 million
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General expenses and spare parts: €0.5 million
This figure does not reflect the full financial requirements.
In the baseline scenario, the project’s financing gap stood at €179.1 million. To this must now be added the €100 million shortfall created by the cancelled EU grant, bringing the gap to €279 million. The greatest uncertainty stems from the arbitration case in London.
The Chinese consortium filed a “Request for Arbitration” in February 2023 against ETYFA, seeking, among other things, an extension of the contract and compensation. According to KPMG’s discussions with ETYFA, possible outcomes are:
a) ETYFA wins and secures €67.5 million in supplementary compensation.
b) ETYFA loses and is liable for €184.5 million plus variation costs.
No one can predict the outcome of the arbitration. In November 2024, ETYFA assessed the chances of a favorable ruling as equal to those of an unfavorable one.
A positive outcome would bring €67.5m in compensation, reducing the financing gap to €111.6m (€211.6m if the lost EU grant is included). But if the ruling goes against ETYFA, the €184.5m liability would raise the shortfall to €363.6m, or €463m with the EU grant loss.
On top of this, legal representation is expected to cost around €20m, depending on the duration and outcome of the proceedings.
