The replacement of Ali Larijani, following his reported death in an Israeli strike on 17 March, is expected to be complex and politically sensitive.
Larijani, a veteran figure in Iranian politics, was widely seen by analysts as one of the country’s most influential decision-makers. According to CNN, he was regarded as a skilled negotiator capable of operating across different factions within the regime and on the international stage.
Succession process and frontrunner
Under Iranian law, President Masoud Pezeshkian will appoint the next national security adviser.
Speculation has focused on Saeed Jalili as a leading contender. Jalili has previously served as national security adviser, was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, and is currently a member of the Expediency Council.
Analysts suggest the role is likely to go to a figure closely aligned with the Supreme Leader’s representatives within the National Security Council.
Shift towards hardliners
Iran analyst Arash Azizi described Jalili as a hardliner representing the regime’s most openly anti-Western faction. His appointment, Azizi argued, would mark a clear shift away from Larijani’s more centrist and pragmatic approach. At the same time, Jalili may lack Larijani’s ability to navigate internal political dynamics.
“His rigidity and extremism could become a vulnerability for the regime,” Azizi said, warning it could reduce Tehran’s flexibility in managing complex political and diplomatic challenges.
Role of the Revolutionary Guard
Azizi also noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds significant real power in Iran, suggesting it may favour a candidate with stronger military credentials suited to current conditions.
Impact on war and diplomacy
Whoever replaces Larijani is expected to play a central role in any future negotiations linked to the ongoing conflict.
“The National Security Council is now the main centre of power in Iran,” Azizi said, adding that the successor will influence both the internal balance of the regime and its stance towards the United States and Israel.
Following Larijani’s death, Jalili issued a statement saying such actions would not save a “weakened enemy” but would instead accelerate its “defeat and humiliation,” according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.
Source: CNN