Simmering Tensions in Eastern Europe over Russian Airspace Violations

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Estonia calls foul over new incursion, after recent airspace violations in Poland and Romania. While Russia denies any wrongdoing, NATO’s eastern flank looks increasingly precarious.

The Ukraine war continues to show signs of spillover after three Russian military jets violated NATO member Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, Reuters reports.

The Estonian government described the latest incursion of three MiG-31 fighter jets into its airspace without permission as “unprecedentedly brazen”.

According to Reuters, the Russian Defence Ministry denied its jets violated Estonian airspace, saying they flew over neutral waters.

A NATO spokesperson said the Alliance "responded immediately and intercepted the Russian aircraft", adding, “This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO's ability to respond."

Tensions are clearly rising in Eastern Europe, a week after around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace prompting NATO jets to strike them down, marking the first direct hit on Russian hardware by western forces since the Ukraine war began. Romania also reported Russian drone incursions over its airspace last week.

The incursions come on the back of joint Russian-Belarus military exercises, which included the rehearsal of the launch of Russian nuclear weapons.

In a separate incident, Poland accused two Russian fighter jets of violating the safety zone of the Petrobaltic drilling platform in the Baltic Sea on Friday.

Estonia called for consultations among members, invoking NATO’s Article 4. In response, NATO announced it would convene a meeting early next week to discuss the incident.

Trump leaves hard talk to Europeans 

US President Donald Trump was also asked to comment, replying that he had yet to be briefed on the incident.

“I don’t love it. I don’t like when that happens,” Trump told reporters when asked if he saw the incursion by Russian jets as a threat to NATO. “Could be big trouble. I’ll let you know later.”

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said: "We will respond to every provocation with determination while investing in a stronger Eastern flank."

She added: "As threats escalate, so too will our pressure." Von der Leyen later called on European leaders to approve a new round of sanctions which would ban Russian liquified natural gas, reported Sky News.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas – a former Estonian prime minister –  made it clear “this was no accident”.   

She described the "violation of Estonia's airspace by Russian military aircraft is an extremely dangerous provocation".

Kallas vowed to continue EU support to strengthen member states’ defences

"Putin is testing the West's resolve. We must not show weakness," she said.