UN Personal Envoy María Angela Holguín launched a new round of contacts with both leaders yesterday, expressing “optimism” on efforts to prepare a new ‘5+1’ meeting with the guarantor powers in July or August.
Holguín said she will meet again with both leaders separately – most likely Saturday – before leaving the island for meetings with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on Monday and Greek FM Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens on Tuesday.
Speaking to reporters after her tete-a-tete with President Nikos Christodoulides, the UN envoy said she also planned to visit Brussels and then return to the island.
Optimism for new 5+1
“It was a very good meeting with Mr Christodoulides… We are preparing the meeting of the ‘5+1’ with the Secretary-General,” she said, adding, “I am optimistic.”
Later in the afternoon, Holguín had a “very productive meeting” with Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman. The former Colombian foreign minister said the date for an enlarged meeting has yet to be agreed but will likely be in July or August.
“I am quite positive and optimistic. We continue to push for that meeting and I hope we can have good results.”
Asked whether the ‘5+1’ will result in the announcement of a resumption of negotiations, the UN envoy replied: “We don’t know. We will see what happens in that meeting. This could be very good news, but I prefer to wait.”
Time is a healer
The envoy’s more positive comments come in stark contrast to the open letter she wrote in February, announcing plans to stay away from the island for a while. At the time, Holguín suggested there was no point sticking around unless she could be of use to the leaders who were getting bogged down in the finer details of confidence-building measures (CMBs).
While Holguín continued contacts with civil society actors, technical committee members and others during that period, it was believed that giving the leaders the chance to meet alone would provide space for them to have frank exchanges and slowly build a relationship of trust. They had three tete-a-tetes in the intervening period.
At the same time, parliamentary elections were held in the Cyprus Republic in May, while its EU Presidency concludes this month. On the Turkish Cypriot side, Erhürman has been in power now for almost eight months, giving him time to find his feet and develop his own relationship of trust with Ankara.
Christodoulides’ cautious optimism
The Turkish Cypriot leader avoided commenting to the press after his meeting with Holguín. Speaking after his meeting with Holguín at the Presidential Palace, Christodoulides said the discussion was “very good, very interesting”.
“We are working to prepare an expanded conference, during which the resumption of talks will be announced.”
Based on his discussions with the UN envoy yesterday, he added: “I am cautiously optimistic.”
The president said he will convene the National Council next week.
Christodoulides noted that the UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last March set the ball rolling, with the UNSG’s subsequent engagement with the EU institutions creating a certain momentum.
A long summer
“We hope, step by step, to build what we are seeking.”
Christodoulides noted that discussions on the Cyprus issue focused on very specific and “important” issues of substance that could lead to the desired goal of an expanded conference and the launch of peace talks. This was not only his aim, but that of the UN and others, he said.
The president noted, regardless of when exactly the ‘5+1’ meeting will be held, “It will be a long summer.”
Common understanding needed
According to reliable sources, the UNSG’s schedule suggests the enlarged meeting will be held end of July or early August. However, there is still work to be done to reach that point. The last ‘5+1’ was essentially considered a failure. It’s unlikely the peace ‘process’ can survive another flop.
For the sides to go to a new meeting, the ground needs to be well prepared with a real possibility of reaching a common understanding on how to proceed.
It is clear the sides will discuss a federation, but the question remains how to deal with past convergences and what to do about the Turkish Cypriot demand for safeguards against another failure. Interestingly, this is an area that is being explored. The Greek Cypriot side wants to avoid incentives that encourage failure but is open to approach the planning of next steps in a way that increases the prospect of success.
One reliable source said there has been much brainstorming and collaborative work done on issues of substance. The two sides are exploring ideas directly related to the core elements of the Cyprus peace process.
EU-Turkey relations
Another important aspect being worked on is EU-Turkey relations. Guterres has been in contact with European Council President António Costa the last two months discussing the Cyprus issue. Alongside Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hopes to discuss Cyprus with Erdogan in Ankara early next month.
According to a well-informed source, discussions are underway to see what the EU can offer Turkey as a sweetener for positive movement on Cyprus. Ankara eyes the possibility of a Customs Union upgrade, visa liberalisation and participation in the EU’s SAFE mechanism with interest. However, it’s not clear yet what can be delivered and to what degree given that those areas require consensus among EU member states.
As the source put it, it’s early June and there’s a long way to go to reach the end of July.
Assuming talks do start, each leader will also need to convince their constituency about the merits of going all the way. A Greek Cypriot source close to the negotiations told Politis that Greek Cypriots will have a lot to gain if things unfold smoothly. Progress will give the leadership the chance to communicate those benefits more clearly.
European answers
Meanwhile, Holguín joined Christodoulides yesterday at the Stelios Bi-Communal Business Co-operation Awards ceremony where intercommunal business teams received significant grants to advance their commercial activities.
On the question of peace talks, the president hoped for “good news” during the summer. “The Cyprus question is a European one and, as such, demands European answers,” he noted.
The UN envoy will also attend the Technical Committees’ Open Day on Wednesday evening outside the Home for Cooperation in the Nicosia buffer zone. Her schedule of contacts includes meetings with the leaders of DISY and AKEL, Annita Demetriou and Stefanos Stefanou.
