The meeting between the leaders of the two communities last Friday confirmed that the Cyprus issue continues to move within a zone of political uncertainty, where maintaining the process appears more important than achieving substantive progress. Despite the positive tone projected publicly by both sides, there was nothing to suggest that the talks are close to a genuine restart.
The confidence-building measures agreed have their own importance. Cooperation on civil society issues, religious services, health matters, or product certification helps preserve basic communication and prevents complete alienation between the two sides. However, these measures do not address the core of the Cyprus problem. On the contrary, they increasingly create the impression of parallel management of two separate political and administrative realities.
Ultimately, the most significant element of the meeting was what did not happen. The failure to agree on opening new crossing points, despite commitments made to the UN Secretary-General two years ago, highlights how limited the scope for political convergence currently is. If there can be no progress on low-politics issues, it is difficult to argue convincingly that conditions exist for meaningful discussion on the major, substantive and sensitive chapters of the Cyprus issue.
The United Nations, while maintaining active interest, now do so without the illusions of earlier periods. António Guterres does not appear willing to convene a new international conference without first identifying clear political intentions and a minimum common ground. This explains Maria Angela Holguín’s insistence on the need for concrete indications of political will, rather than the mere management of impressions.
The current picture resembles a process of maintaining dialogue rather than genuine negotiation. Both leaders avoid a rupture, knowing that a complete collapse of the process would carry political costs for both sides. Yet as long as the substance remains off the table, the status quo becomes further entrenched.
This, perhaps, now represents the greatest threat to the country’s future: the normalisation of division and the unknown future of this island.
