Six weeks of intense debate in the run up to the October 19th 'electoral' process in the occupied territories and 'Politis' looks at two unknown factors that will decide the race for the next leader of the Turkish-Cypriots.
Tufan Erhurman has a steady lead in the TC polls, but nothing's a given, not just yet.
By Christos Georgiou
Ersin Tatar is desperately trying to hold on to the coetails of Erhurman, who might be ahead in all the polls, but his grasp is not yet tight, if one considers polling conducted in areas where Turkish settler presence is prevalent. It's clear however amongst the Turkish-Cypriot core, that the opposition candidate is closing in on victory.
This overall setting, also in connection with any other dynamic that the candidates might forge as they move towards October 19th, remains unclear at the present time and there's no certain path ahead. This outlook is increasingly developing because of two parameters that might turn the tide one way or the other.
The basic parameters
Based on the comprehensive analysis of Turkish-Cypriot experts without any political or party affiliation, one of the primary issues that will prove decisive towards the outcome is the degree of Turkish involvement and whether the level and intensity of this approach will actually make a difference.
Notwithstanding reports of Turkish government circles stepping in to support Ersin Tatar, the aforementioned TC analysts believe that any Turkish intervention is not really substantial but just a saving face exercise. In other words, there is no organised and clear support for the Turkish-Cypriot leader and absolutely no comparison to Ankara's heavy presence in the previous process, considered unprecedented.
In 2020, the same sources say, there was direct intervention, no less with travelling voters from Turkey, supporting particular media outlets, manipulating content, exerting pressure on organised local groups, as well as 'civil servants', the largest pool of voters.
Absent provocations
Meanwhile, Erhurman appears to be particularly cautious in his remarks on external influences, though he does venture into guarded criticism. The goal here is a preventive policy that will not allow Turkey such an extensive hand in the process. The next two weeks are considered crucial as to Ankara's level of involvement and whether it will be provocative or more subtle in its overtones.
Turkish settlers
This is the second parameter that might pull the weight of voters one way or the other. It is none other than the settlers trend, 'naturalised Turkish-Cypriots', as a result of an organised policy by Tatar over the past few years. These 25 thousand voters could tip the scales towards Tatar against the will of the Turkish-Cypriot mass.
Meanwhile, Tatar's insistence on a two state solution, allows Erhurman to critisise him for the lack of productive dialogue on Cyprus, pointing out his weaknesses and noting that under his nationalistic approach, TCs have gone deeper into international isolation.
Erhurman is steadlily in favour of the bizonal bicommunal federation with political equality, referring to 'statelets' with self-government but within a federal European state, while noting the fact that a return to the negotiating table must be combined with confidence building measures.