The result of the 2021 parliamentary elections was traumatic for AKEL. The party of the Left recorded its lowest percentage in the history of parliamentary elections in the Republic of Cyprus. DISY and DIKO also suffered losses, but AKEL was the biggest loser of the election. Eight years in opposition were not enough to halt the party’s decline. The negative result accelerated the leadership succession process, with Stefanos Stefanou elected as the new General Secretary.
This was followed by a period of self-criticism, with the dominant conclusion being that the party needed renewal - both in terms of its structures and personnel - as well as greater openness towards society.
Several steps were taken in this direction, including upgrading auxiliary offices into policy-making departments, reducing the number of salaried officials in collective bodies, and changing the method of electing the General Secretary so that this is done by the Party Congress rather than the Central Committee. In addition, the institution of the “New Forces” was reshaped into a “Social Alliance”, the party’s headquarters were renovated, its logo was changed and the use of technology was improved. Renewal was seen as the remedy to the political malaise of an era marked by the weakening of traditional parties.
Alienation
However, there was another conclusion drawn from the negative election result, articulated vividly by Andros Kyprianou after the parliamentary elections and before handing over the leadership to Stefanos Stefanou. In an interview with the newspaper Ta Nea (22/06/2021), Mr Kyprianou stated that “AKEL must first turn inwards”. This reflected an acknowledgement of the political wear and tear caused by collaborations with Centre parties in presidential elections.
AKEL’s need to maintain channels of communication with DIKO and EDEK led to more centrist positions and, ultimately, to the alienation of thousands of traditional left-wing voters. Moreover, the party’s support for Tassos Papadopoulos in the 2003 presidential elections, which ultimately led to the 2004 “no” vote, carried a heavy political cost. The party of the Left needed to shed the image of a systemic party and shape a new political agenda with a clearly left-wing and social orientation.
The major contradiction
AKEL’s conclusions reveal a major contradiction between the dual need for renewal and outward-looking engagement, on the one hand, and the goal of returning to ideological purity, on the other. This contradiction is clearly reflected today: on the one hand, AKEL seeks to open up to society; on the other, it is becoming politically inward-looking, losing potential allies on the party-political stage.
While the number of non-party figures participating in policy-making bodies and on electoral lists has increased significantly, the number of political forces with which AKEL cooperates at parliamentary level has decreased.
The rift with DIKO
AKEL’s proposal to tax excess bank profits is an example of its effort to return to its ideological roots and persuade traditional left-wing voters to return to the party. However, this specific legislative proposal widened the rift with DIKO and highlighted the extent of political alienation from traditional allies.
DIKO has also been distanced by AKEL’s stance on Ukraine, where condemnation of the Russian invasion has been accompanied by anti-European positions and anti-Western rhetoric. AKEL’s position on Gaza has functioned as yet another factor of alienation from the largest party of the traditional Centre.
With its current agenda, AKEL is managing to reclaim its ideological identity and political credibility, achieving greater internal cohesion ahead of parliamentary elections. In opinion polls, only AKEL and ELAM show cohesion levels close to 80%. However, the party of the Left is burning bridges with some traditional Centre parties, effectively pushing them towards DISY. This appears to be the price of achieving the best possible result in parliamentary elections.
Post-election alliances
Maintaining its electoral strength and second-place position is achievable only through high levels of voter cohesion in the May parliamentary elections. Yet parliamentary elections are not the end of the story. Immediately afterwards, a new period of intense consultations will begin among parties to form alliances ahead of the presidential elections.
The widening gap with the centre-right (DIKO and DIPA) is also not the end of the road. Opinion polls show new political forces entering the scene, some of which could potentially cooperate with AKEL both in the new Parliament and in the 2028 presidential elections.
Volt, the Direct Democracy movement of MEP Fidias Panayiotou, and ALMA led by Odysseas Michaelides aspire to fill the void created by the political erosion of traditional parties and to become the new Centre. There is also scope for rapprochement with EDEK and the Green Party – Citizens’ Cooperation. All these forces carry ideological elements of the centre-left, and recently AKEL has taken part in joint protests with many of them. For example, members of AKEL, Volt and the Greens participated together in several demonstrations against Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
Candidate for 2028
The key challenge for cooperation between AKEL and these forces is the selection of a candidate for the 2028 presidential elections who can express and unite them all. AKEL shows a striking weakness on this issue. It has been in opposition since 2013 and has failed to cultivate a party candidate. In both subsequent presidential elections, it supported candidates outside the party.
This weakness could potentially push AKEL towards Odysseas Michaelides, who enjoys high popularity and is determined to run for President. To prevent Michaelides from securing the nomination, AKEL would need to field a candidate with greater public appeal.
If DISY forms a political front with DIKO, DIPA and other centre-right forces in the presidential elections, securing a place in the second round, a tough contest will emerge between Nikos Christodoulides and the forces rallying around AKEL or Odysseas Michaelides. The Left and ALMA would have no option but to cooperate in order to reach the second round. A crucial factor will be the percentage secured by the ALMA movement in the parliamentary elections.
The farce
Karl Marx famously said that “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce”. If AKEL is ultimately drawn into a collaboration with ALMA in the 2028 presidential elections, with Odysseas Michaelides as the presidential candidate, and wins, the party of the Left will once again face major ideological dilemmas.
Will it be able to maintain its current left-wing agenda with a president from another party? Will Odysseas Michaelides implement AKEL’s policies, or will the party once again distance itself from its own identity for the sake of alliances?
AKEL will certainly not be able to impose its agenda with a president from another party, and it will then have to manage the expectations created by its current radical positions on a range of issues. In that case, there is a risk that the party will lose its credibility and become trapped in choices that could entail serious long-term political and electoral costs.