The Republican Turkish Party, or CTP, holds a commanding lead in voting intentions in northern Cyprus, according to a new survey, with support nearly double that of the ruling National Unity Party, or UBP.
The poll, conducted in March 2026 by the Turkish Cypriot Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies, or CMIRS, places CTP at 32.99%, compared with 16.90% for UBP. Undecided voters account for 9.57%.
According to Bugün Kıbrıs, which published the third phase of the research, the findings are based on face-to-face interviews with a sample of 500 people.
The study highlights what its authors describe as a growing crisis of trust and representation within the Turkish Cypriot community.
CMIRS director Mine İnçirli said the March 2026 data point to a serious governance and representation problem. She noted that a large majority of the community views corruption and party patronage as widespread, while also feeling excluded from decision-making processes.
Shifts in voter support
The survey records a shift of support from UBP towards CTP, although CTP is also shown to be experiencing some losses.
According to the findings, several parties are expected to enter the new assembly after surpassing the 5% electoral threshold. These include the Rebirth Party, the People’s Party, the Communal Democracy Party and the Democratic Party.
The results add to broader indications of political dissatisfaction in the north, with voter sentiment increasingly shaped by concerns over governance, transparency and institutional credibility.