In an era of climate change and crisis, a comprehensive approach to wildfires is essential—one that includes fire meteorology: the science of forecasting fire spread and understanding the interaction between fires and the atmosphere.
This is an area in which Cyprus remains significantly behind. Given that extreme wildfires result from a coupling of atmospheric and fire dynamics, any effective response strategy must actively integrate meteorological expertise. Yet, when a large-scale wildfire breaks out on the island, fire meteorologists stationed at the coordination centre lack access to advanced weather forecasting systems. As a result, they cannot accurately predict the fire's path—limiting their ability to support fire services and Civil Defence operations, including evacuations.
Toward a joint forecasting model
To address this critical gap, the Cyprus Department of Meteorology is currently working with the Israel Meteorological Service, a collaboration launched in 2022. As part of this partnership, Israel already provides Cyprus with five-day fire danger forecasts based on a highly specialised and accurate index developed in-house.
Speaking to Politis, the Director of the Cyprus Meteorological Service, Philippos Tymvios, highlighted the accuracy of the Israeli-developed index, which is now being used to prepare reliable fire weather bulletins. The next step under discussion is real-time data sharing during wildfires—data that would significantly enhance operational support for the Fire Service, the Forestry Department, and Civil Defence.
This issue was discussed in a trilateral meeting last Tuesday between the meteorological heads of Cyprus, Greece, and Israel. The three countries have now laid the groundwork for a joint forecasting system to model fire spread. “At the moment, Israel is ahead in this area, with an established system already in place. Their expertise can guide the development of a joint platform. However, each country will need to conduct tailored technical work beforehand,” Tymvios noted.
Fire meteorology: still in its infancy
Fire meteorology in Cyprus remains underdeveloped, hindering the country’s ability to implement strategies that draw meaningfully on weather science. That said, the Meteorological Service does have several trained professionals who specialise in this field. According to Tymvios, these experts already use the Israeli-supplied fire risk data for prevention purposes and issue regular fire weather bulletins shared with key state services.
The new trilateral forecasting system being developed by Cyprus, Greece, and Israel will serve as a critical tool for these meteorologists—particularly during major incidents when the emergency response plan IKAROS 2 is activated. Currently, there are no advanced tools available at the coordination centre during such events. The planned system aims to fill this gap.
As Tymvios acknowledged, this shortfall is a pressing operational issue, and one that the three countries are now actively working to resolve. The next meeting between the heads of the meteorological services will take place in person, to finalise the next phase of their cooperation.
