What to Expect When You Are Not Expecting

All the ingredients for success or failure are on the table and at the end of the day political will is just a wish. Leadership is what will be required to decide the fate of the Cyprus issue in 2026.

Header Image

A new dawn rises over the sea. The Cyprus problem enters a new year. Will 2026 be the year of real leadership? (Photo by Sebastien Gabriel on Unsplash).

Redux

Every journey circles home 

This is not a pregnancy column. It is about the prospects for a Cyprus settlement. Yet the title still fits, because peace, like birth, does not happen alone. It takes two to tango, two to make peace, two to build friendship, two to honour contracts. And in Cyprus, two sides still circle each other, cautious, bruised, and unsure whether they truly want what they say they want.

In 2025, informal UN-led meetings kept the effort alive, but confidence-building measures moved at a glacial pace and mistrust deepened again. At the same time, lawfare over property, tit-for-tat arrests, and hardened narratives of victimhood were deployed as tools of mistrust, while elections and EU presidencies -moments that could inject urgency- continued to be treated as obstacles rather than boosters. Instead of being used to generate momentum for what is supposedly the number one national issue, they became convenient excuses for delay and caution.

In our era of endless scrolling, developments in the Cyprus issue increasingly function as rhetorical resets rather than change. The victory of Tufan Erhürman in October altered the tone, but only if you want to see the glass half full.

Like the boy who cried wolf, repeated false alarms have taught even the most hopeful or optimistic to be wary. The first meetings with President Nikos Christodoulides were civil and constructive, but they unfolded against a backdrop that has defined the Cyprus issue for decades.

Same old recipe, with familiar ingredients measured in familiar proportions. Alleged irritation in Ankara, Greek Cypriot reliance on geopolitics and EU leverage, and the perennial attempt to play the “wannabe important player” in the region, tossed together and left to simmer. Regional developments, from Gaza to Ukraine, and the shifting dynamics of great-power deal-making, add the fear seasoning of an "imposed solution" and the aroma of cautious optimism evaporates before it reaches the table. The recipe remains on the fire, reheated again and again, until there is no taste left.

By December, the tone had shifted from optimism to caution, the Cyprus synonym for mistrust. In theory, the leaders agree on political equality and a federal framework rooted in UN resolutions. The gaps are not unbridgeable. So what's really missing? Is it political will?

All the familiar ingredients are on the table together with exhaustion, growing distance, and the sense that marriage between the sides is unlikely. They can be stirred and simmered until the dish tastes great, or left too long on the fire until it burns. Political will are just words that sound like a wish, yes it would be better if the Cyprus problem was solved, if not it's ok. What is decisive is leadership, the courage to act when the moment demands it.

History suggests delays feel safer, yet every delay entrenches division, resentment, and the illusion that time alone heals wounds. Peace, like birth, cannot be induced by one parent alone. It requires trust, risk, and timing. In 2026, Cyprus will face elections, EU responsibilities, and UN transitions. Talks may resume, or they may drift again. The recipe remains on the fire, reheated again and again, until leadership alone decides whether the meal can be finally served.

 

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