It has been a while since Europe first felt the tremors of a resurgent Russian threat. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 shocked the continent, prompting NATO to reconsider its posture, the European Union to impose sanctions, and governments to recognize hybrid threats such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and covert operations as central to modern conflict. For several years, these risks were largely seen as remote or low intensity, affecting primarily Eastern Europe. However, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 transformed perception into daily reality. War was no longer something happening only over the horizon. It became woven into Europe’s political rhythm, shaping agendas and defense planning.
The latest example of the war climate becoming starkly tangible was in Poland, Monday when a railway line linking Warsaw to Lublin and continuing toward Ukraine was destroyed in an act described by Prime Minister Donald Tusk as "sabotage". According to Euronews, Tusk in statements upon his visit on site emphasized the seriousness of the situation, noting that military units had been dispatched to inspect the damaged infrastructure. This rail corridor is vital for transporting humanitarian aid and military equipment to Ukraine, and its destruction underscores the physical as well as psychological dimensions of the ongoing conflict. For Polish leaders, this is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of strategic provocation.
As reported by Polish media, General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, warned that the adversary had begun preparations for war. He stated, “They are creating an environment here designed to undermine public trust in the government, in key institutions such as the armed forces and the police, and to create conditions favorable for potential aggression on Polish territory.”
At this point, Europe’s war climate is as much political as it is military. The statements of European officials are far more than rhetorical flourishes. As noted by Euronews and the European External Action Service, they reflect a growing political consensus that Europe’s security is under sustained challenge, not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but increasingly on its own territory. EU leaders are framing Russia’s behavior not as episodic aggression but as a prolonged strategic threat that jeopardizes European sovereignty, democratic stability, and strategic independence.
The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, delivered stark warnings in the European Parliament. She told lawmakers, “Russia is already a direct threat to the European Union. This is a long-term plan for long-term aggression. You do not spend that much on military if you do not plan to use it.” According to Euronews, Kallas further emphasised the urgency of the situation, adding, “Europe is under attack and our continent sits in a world becoming more dangerous”.
In her October 2025 speech to the European Parliament, the Commission President addressed Russia's actions against Poland, including drone incursions into Polish airspace. Ursula von der Leyen, described a “deliberate and targeted grey-zone campaign” orchestrated by Russia, AP reported.
She said, “Something new and dangerous is happening in our skies. These incidents are calculated to linger in the twilight of deniability. It is time to call it by its name. This is hybrid warfare.” Von der Leyen also stressed the need for a decisive response, stating, “Every square centimetre of our territory must be protected. Europe must respond. We must not shy away from attributing responsibility.” These statements reflect a political consensus that Europe’s security environment is long-term, systemic, and multidimensional.
Bigger picture
The war climate seems to be reshaping Europe’s strategic planning. The language of long-term aggression suggests that Europe is preparing for a sustained period of strategic competition rather than a short-term crisis. Leaders are pressing NATO to raise defense targets and deepen integration. Kallas has publicly argued that every European NATO ally must rethink its defense commitments, a position noted in The Guardian. At the same time, Europe is pursuing a defense industrial shift. The European Commission’s programs aim to boost joint weapons procurement, ramp up production, and enhance strategic industrial cooperation, as covered in Reuters.
The persistent threat also has governance implications. Long-term preparation legitimizes more intrusive security measures, including cybersecurity regulations and critical infrastructure protection. It could also reshape democratic debate and decision-making as political leaders assume greater authority over defense policy and industrial strategy.
Germany’s intelligence agency, the BND, warned that Russia is prepared to test Europe’s borders at any moment, and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius suggested that the summer of 2025 may have been Europe’s last peaceful period, noting that a NATO–Russia confrontation cannot be ruled out before 2029, as reported by Kyiv Independent.
Europe is confronting a strategic environment where daily headlines of sabotage, drone incursions, and political warnings have become the norm. From Warsaw to Brussels, from the EU leadership to NATO capitals, there is a shared recognition that the continent’s security landscape has fundamentally changed. The explosion on the Polish railway is not an isolated incident but part of a larger signal: the adversary is testing boundaries, probing weaknesses, and seeking to reshape the political and military environment to its advantage.
General Kukuła’s warning remains prescient. “Everything depends on our posture,” he said. “If we manage to deter the adversary, we will avoid war; if not, we encourage them to attack.” This assessment captures the precarious balance on which Europe now stands: a continent preparing simultaneously for hybrid, conventional, and long-term strategic challenges.