Taiwan’s military has grown accustomed to tracking Chinese warplanes operating near the island on a daily basis. Some days bring only a few aircraft, while others involve dozens, but the activity has become almost constant.
That is why a recent lull lasting nearly two weeks caught analysts by surprise. According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, Chinese military aircraft stopped flying near the island for 13 consecutive days beginning on February 27. The pause ended on Thursday when five aircraft from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were detected around the Taiwan Strait during the previous 24 hours. Several of the aircraft flew close to the median line that divides the strait, according to Taiwanese authorities.
Longest pause since 2020
Analysts say the absence of flights represents the longest pause in Chinese air activity since Taiwan began publishing daily military data in 2020. Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source monitoring platform PLATracker, said the pattern was highly unusual.
“Since Taiwan’s defence ministry began releasing this data, the trend has been steadily upward,” he told CNN. “This lull represents a significant break from that pattern.”
One brief exception occurred on March 6, when two Chinese aircraft entered the far southwestern corner of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. However, analysts say the broader trend still marked a notable interruption in recent military activity.
Possible explanations
The sudden quiet has prompted a number of theories among analysts. One possibility is that Beijing may be seeking to avoid escalating tensions ahead of a planned meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump later this month. Taiwan, trade and technology are expected to be key topics of discussion.
Other observers have pointed to the ongoing war involving Iran and its potential impact on global energy markets, although analysts say any direct connection remains unclear. Some also note that China’s annual parliamentary meetings, known as the “Two Sessions,” are concluding this week, a period when military activity has occasionally slowed in previous years.
Naval presence continues
Taiwan’s defence minister Wellington Koo urged caution in interpreting the lull, noting that Chinese naval operations around the island have continued.
“There are many theories,” Koo told reporters, adding that Chinese warships have continued operating near Taiwan on a daily basis.
According to Taiwan’s military, several Chinese naval vessels remained active around the island throughout the period even while the skies above remained unusually quiet.
Limited response to US flight
Analysts also note that the five aircraft detected on Thursday appeared on the same day that a US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft passed through the Taiwan Strait. The US Seventh Fleet said the flight demonstrated Washington’s commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. Lewis suggested the Chinese aircraft may have been deployed simply to monitor the American plane. Even so, the response appeared limited compared with previous incidents involving US military movements in the strait.
Activity has surged in recent years
Over the past five years, Beijing has significantly increased the number of military aircraft operating near Taiwan, gradually normalising what were once considered major incursions. Taiwan has frequently reported dozens of Chinese aircraft operating near the island in a single day. Against that backdrop, analysts say the sudden absence of flights has been as striking as their return.
“It used to be that five aircraft would make headlines,” Lewis said. “Now we’re talking about zero, and that’s what’s unusual.”
For now, the reason behind the temporary pause remains unclear.
Source: CNN