type 2 diabetes is no longer a condition primarily affecting older adults, according to a major new study that found rising diagnosis rates among younger generations, especially women in their 20s and 30s.
Researchers analysed data from England's National Diabetes Audit covering the period 2011 to 2024 and identified a clear generational divide. While new diagnoses declined among older adults, incidence increased among people under 40, with the sharpest rise recorded in women. The findings were published in The Lancet Regional Health - Europe.
Women under 40 driving the increase
The study found that among adults aged 20 to 29, the rate of new type 2 diabetes diagnoses rose by an average of 3.0% per year in women and 2.1% per year in men.
Overall, incidence increased by 69% among women aged 20 to 29 during the study period, compared with a 43% increase among men of the same age.
Researchers also found rising rates among women aged 30 to 39, while diagnosis rates among older adults generally declined.
Obesity developing earlier
The researchers linked the trend to increasing levels of obesity at younger ages.
Body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis rose significantly among younger adults and increased around twice as quickly as it did in older age groups.
Among white British women aged 20 to 29, the average BMI at diagnosis increased from 37.7 in 2011 to 40.7 in 2024, a level classified as severe obesity.
Lead author Dr Shivani Misra of Imperial College London said the findings suggest severe obesity is developing earlier in life and driving diabetes diagnoses at younger ages.
Not confined to ethnic minority groups
The study challenges the perception that early-onset type 2 diabetes primarily affects ethnic minority communities.
While people of South Asian and Black backgrounds remain disproportionately affected, researchers found increasing incidence among white populations as well.
The rise was particularly noticeable among white, Asian and Black women aged 20 to 29, and among white women aged 30 to 39.
Why experts are concerned
Researchers warned that developing type 2 diabetes at a younger age can lead to more years living with the disease and greater exposure to complications.
Early-onset diabetes has been linked to increased risks of:
- Cardiovascular disease
- Kidney disease
- Nerve damage
- Eye complications
- Adverse pregnancy outcomes
Because the condition develops earlier, patients face a longer lifetime risk of damage caused by elevated blood sugar levels.
Call for earlier prevention
The authors said the findings suggest existing prevention strategies may be less effective among younger generations.
They called for greater focus on preventing obesity earlier in life and addressing environments that encourage excess calorie consumption and unhealthy lifestyles.
The researchers concluded that efforts to prevent type 2 diabetes should begin long before middle age, targeting younger adults before obesity and metabolic disease become established.
Source: BBC
