A new Pulse poll commissioned by DISY suggests Cyprus' 2028 presidential election remains wide open, with no clear frontrunner emerging and the final shape of the race heavily dependent on the candidates who ultimately enter the contest.
While President Nikos Christodoulides retains a lead in a general question on suitability for the presidency, the findings indicate that support shifts considerably when voters are presented with specific electoral scenarios.
The polling points to three main contenders: incumbent President Christodoulides, former presidential candidate Andreas Mavroyiannis, who records the most consistent support across different scenarios, and DISY leader Annita Demetriou, who outperforms other figures tested from the centre-right.
The survey also suggests that the identity of DISY's eventual candidate could play a decisive role in determining who reaches the second round.
Christodoulides leads suitability ratings
Asked who is the most suitable person to serve as the next President of the Republic, respondents placed Christodoulides first with 19%.
Mavroyiannis followed on 16%, while Demetriou ranked third with 12%.
Former DISY president Averof Neophytou recorded 9%, followed by George Pamboridis on 4%. Stefanos Stefanou, Christos Christou and Odysseas Michaelides each received 3%, while Constantinos Yiorkadjis polled 2%.
A further 9% selected "none", 5% named another person and 12% did not provide a specific answer.
The figures indicate that a significant portion of the electorate remains either undecided or unconvinced by the current field of potential candidates.
Mavroyiannis records the most stable support
Across four-candidate first-round scenarios, Mavroyiannis consistently polls around 30%, regardless of which centre-right candidate is included.
In a scenario featuring Demetriou, Mavroyiannis leads with 30%, ahead of Demetriou on 24% and Christodoulides on 22%, while the ELAM candidate receives 10%.
When Neophytou replaces Demetriou, Mavroyiannis remains on 30%, with Christodoulides rising to 27% and Neophytou recording 15%.
A similar pattern emerges in scenarios involving Pamboridis, where Mavroyiannis again secures 30%, compared with 28% for Christodoulides and 14% for Pamboridis.
The strongest result for Christodoulides is recorded when Yiorkadjis is included as the centre-right challenger. In that scenario, Mavroyiannis leads narrowly with 31%, Christodoulides follows on 30%, the ELAM candidate receives 13%, and Yiorkadjis records 9%.
The findings suggest Mavroyiannis possesses a solid electoral base that remains largely unaffected by changes among rival candidates, while Christodoulides' performance varies depending on the strength of the DISY-backed contender.
Demetriou emerges as DISY's strongest option
Among the centre-right figures tested, Demetriou records the strongest showing.
She attracts 24% support in four-candidate scenarios, significantly ahead of Neophytou (15%), Pamboridis (14%) and Yiorkadjis (9%).
The survey also indicates that Demetriou achieves the highest level of support among DISY voters, retaining 53% of the party's electorate. By comparison, Neophytou retains 41%, Pamboridis 28% and Yiorkadjis 18%.
At the same time, Christodoulides continues to attract substantial backing from former DISY voters.
In a contest against Demetriou, he secures 31% of DISY's previous vote. That rises to 38% against Neophytou, 44% against Pamboridis and 50% against Yiorkadjis.
The results point to a central challenge for DISY: the stronger its candidate, the fewer voters appear likely to drift towards Christodoulides.
Different outcomes depending on the Left's candidate
The poll also tested three-candidate contests, revealing a significant difference depending on who represents the Left.
With Mavroyiannis as candidate, he finishes first in every scenario tested.
Against Demetriou and Christodoulides, he receives 34%, compared with 27% for Demetriou and 26% for Christodoulides.
When paired against Neophytou and Christodoulides, Mavroyiannis records 35%, ahead of Christodoulides on 29% and Neophytou on 20%.
The picture changes when AKEL leader Stefanos Stefanou is tested instead.
In a scenario involving Stefanou, Demetriou and Christodoulides, all three candidates are effectively tied, with Demetriou and Stefanou on 28% and Christodoulides on 27%.
In other combinations, however, Christodoulides finishes first, polling between 32% and 35%.
The findings suggest that Mavroyiannis currently enjoys broader appeal beyond AKEL's traditional voter base, making him a stronger electoral performer than Stefanou in the tested scenarios.
No clear favourite
Overall, the survey paints a picture of a fragmented political landscape more than a year after the last presidential election.
Christodoulides retains the advantages of incumbency and continues to draw support from across party lines, particularly within the broader centre.
Mavroyiannis appears to command the most stable support base and emerges as the strongest potential challenger.
Demetriou, meanwhile, is the DISY figure best positioned to transform the race into a genuine three-way contest.
The poll also shows ELAM maintaining support in the 10% to 13% range, underlining the party's potential influence on first-round dynamics and the battle for a place in the runoff.
With candidate selections still unresolved and alliances yet to take shape, the survey suggests the 2028 presidential election remains highly unpredictable. The eventual composition of the ballot paper may prove just as important as the candidates themselves.
