This time, Nikos Christodoulides will have to face an entirely different DISY from that of 2023. Many of these officials “have already been spent by the President”, analysts told Politis. Their momentum has been eroded, making them less able to act as a “Trojan horse” for the President’s benefit.
Democratic Rally (DISY) president Annita Demetriou made a surprise decision to withdraw from the race for the party’s nomination ahead of the 2028 presidential elections, citing the need to protect party unity. The decision has in effect acted as a catalyst for developments that will serve as a point of reference in the period ahead.
The tremors and impact of this decision are not confined within the walls of Pindarou. They are inevitably carried over and immediately felt across the wider political landscape, and above all in the government camp.
At the Presidential Palace, developments as they stand at this hour are causing concern bordering on alarm. They completely overturn the conditions on which a strategy was being built: preserving existing gains so that a large section of DISY would once again support Nikos Christodoulides.
The three-way split is gone
To understand how developments are being experienced at the Presidential Palace, today’s change in circumstances must be viewed against what unfolded within DISY during the previous presidential contest in 2023.
DISY then found itself caught in deep polarisation. The party’s former president, Averof Neophytou, had to contend with a deep, multi-layered crisis. The split in the party’s leadership led to the defeat of the party’s candidate. A significant portion of DISY voters backed the official candidate, Averof Neophytou. However, a smaller force, which chose to support Nikos Christodoulides, was enough to keep him out of the second round.
This covert as well as open support for Mr Christodoulides from DISY officials weakened Averof Neophytou’s campaign, paving the way for the election of the current President of the Republic. Since then, managing relations with DISY has been one of the main pillars of the Presidential Palace’s political survival and future planning. This applies in particular to the factions that had diverged from the official party line.
Loss of footholds
Today, a year and a half before the next presidential elections, the landscape is different both qualitatively and quantitatively. Annita Demetriou withdrew voluntarily from the internal contest, with securing party cohesion as her main criterion and goal. At first sight, her move appears to close the door on destabilisation scenarios.
At the Presidential Palace, although it is early for assessments, there is a growing suspicion that the conditions of 2023 will not be repeated. Some DISY officials had mobilised organisationally and behind the scenes in favour of Nikos Christodoulides in the previous contest. Over the past three and a half years, they have lost a significant part of their political influence and standing within the party.
Many of these officials “have already been spent by the President”, as analysts told Politis. Their momentum has been eroded, making them less able to act as a “Trojan horse” or as a lever of pressure. The aim of such pressure would be fresh support for the President, outside the party’s official structures, from within DISY itself.
Catalyst and narrative
The main blow for the Presidential Palace is the very prospect of a smoother internal process in DISY. The internal race between Averof Neophytou and Giorgos Pamboridis, and perhaps someone else, contains elements of tension and rivalry. Even so, Annita Demetriou’s move itself acts as a catalyst for rallying and protecting the party.
The pre-election period in the country’s largest political party is expected to be driven by a strong, dominant narrative: preserving unity and strengthening DISY as the undisputed protagonist. The internal election, in which almost 50,000 members will take part, will be held at the end of November. Regardless of who receives the nomination, the party is likely to head towards the 2028 elections united, closing the wounds of the past and avoiding fragmentation. This likely picture inevitably and drastically limits the scope for any outside factor to penetrate party processes.
The new reality at the Presidential Palace
In short, avoiding a three-way split in DISY does not suit Nikos Christodoulides at all. This political reality was grasped at the Presidential Palace almost immediately after Ms Demetriou’s announcement.
In 2023, DISY’s fragmented state left corridors open and offered the government side opportunities to fish for voters. Today, the party is moving towards a more controlled and unified internal order, which may deprive the Presidential Palace of the footholds it so badly wants.
Of course, political and above all party developments are unpredictable and can radically change the picture now emerging. For that reason, the Presidential Palace is now waiting for the final decision of DISY’s grassroots on the candidate who will go forward for the presidential elections. After the internal elections, the concern at the Presidential Palace will of course continue.
