Both leaders showed themselves determined and capable of embarking on a new path, therefore, United Nations Personal Envoy María Ángela Holguín Cuellar is preparing a carefully sequenced diplomatic push aimed at reviving stalled Cyprus peace efforts, with a trilateral meeting between the island’s two leaders expected toward the end of January and a possible expanded five-plus-one meeting with guarantor powers and the UN secretary general tentatively maybe for February, officials familiar with the process said.
Holguín, in an online conversation with ANKA, has made clear that January will be treated as a decisive preparatory phase, during which negotiating teams on both sides will be expected to resolve technical and procedural matters before leaders meet again.
Holguín said her meeting in Ankara with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had been postponed until Thursday due to the minister’s busy schedule, adding that the talks would be extremely important. Speaking to ANKA after her recent contacts in Nicosia with Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides, and in Athens with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Holguín said the earlier meetings had revealed both opportunities and weaknesses in the current process. While political discussions were deeper than in previous encounters, excessive time was consumed by measures that were insufficiently prepared at the technical level.
More than three hours were spent in the last trilateral meeting, with extended debate over issues such as water infrastructure projects, renewable energy proposals and crossing points. These are very relevant measures for the daily lives of both communities and should are ready be implemented to pave the way for more substantive discussions in a context of cooperation not bargaining.
“When leaders are forced to discuss technical details, it undermines the purpose of political dialogue,” she said, adding that negotiators must arrive with clear, workable proposal. “We have to reinforce the negotiators meeting”.
Despite those shortcomings, Holguín described the meeting as substantively significant. Both Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides engaged in detailed exchanges on past negotiation milestones, including the 2017 Crans Montana talks, the Berlin framework and earlier areas of convergence.
According to Holguín, the depth of discussion marked a shift from symbolic engagement to a more informed and focused exchange, suggesting that both leaders now have full command of the negotiating file.
The planned late January trilateral meeting is intended to determine whether sufficient progress has been achieved to justify convening a broader format under UN auspices. That meeting would assess implementation prospects for confidence building measures and test whether there is meaningful alignment on the methodology of talks about the future.
If those conditions are met, Holguín is expected to report good news to the UN Secretary General António Guterres to convene an informal five-plus-one meeting. The expanded format would bring together the two Cypriot sides, guarantor powers Türkiye, Greece and the United Kingdom, and the UN.
Such a meeting would not be the first of its kind, but for the first time in several years would represent a significant escalation in diplomatic engagement, signaling that the UN sees a realistic chance of progress.
Holguín stressed that the immediate goal is not a comprehensive settlement but agreement on a structured framework for meaningful negotiations. While for obvious reasons she refused to go into specifics, sources have identified three essential elements that must be secured before advancing: acceptance of political equality as defined in UN Security Council resolutions and past convergencies that included rotation of presidency on a 2:1 basis, agreement on a time bound and results oriented process, and acknowledgment of existing convergences achieved in past negotiations. “No return to status quo” or “penalty clause” demanded by Turkish Cypriots for agreeing to open new full-fledged Cyprus talks, sources said, should be left to the UN Secretary General and the European Union.
Without sides agree on a structured framework, Holguín warned, renewed talks risk repeating earlier cycles in which negotiations collapsed after prolonged procedural debate.
Holguín also dismisses persistent claims in Greek Cypriot political discourse that Turkish Cypriot positions are dictated by Ankara and that during the Nov. 11 trilateral meeting Erhürman left the room twice to talk to Ankara. She condemned such claims as speculation and adds that does not help the process. Although she said that a constructive role from the countries directly involved in the Cyprus issue, as well as from the EU, is vital.
Whether the diplomatic calendar advances now depend on concrete deliverables in the coming weeks, particularly from negotiating teams tasked with narrowing gaps before leaders meet again.
“If we arrive at an expanded meeting with substance rather than unresolved procedures, then real discussion becomes possible,” Holguín said.
For now, expectations are still guarded, but the coming weeks are widely seen as a critical test of whether Cyprus talks can move from preparation to purpose.
Yusuf KANLI, Executive Board member and Vice Chair of the Turkish Association of Journalists, Editorial Advisor of Anka News Agency, Journalist/Columnist.