President Donald Trump is moving closer to a large-scale military confrontation with Iran, according to a report by Axios citing sources familiar with internal discussions in Washington.
The report warns that a potential operation would not resemble a limited precision strike, but rather an extended, possibly multi-day campaign with significant regional consequences.
A broader campaign than previous strikes
According to Axios sources, any imminent operation would likely be a joint US–Israel effort, with a much broader scope and deeper impact on the Iranian regime than previous engagements.
The report contrasts the potential operation with Israel’s 12-day campaign last June, in which the United States participated in strikes targeting underground nuclear facilities. A new confrontation, it notes, could shape the remaining years of Trump’s presidency.
At the same time, public and congressional attention appears limited, leaving little debate over what could become the most significant US military intervention in the Middle East in more than a decade.
Diplomacy at an impasse
The Trump administration reportedly came close to military action in early January following the killing of thousands of protesters by Iranian authorities. When that window closed, officials shifted to a dual-track approach combining renewed nuclear negotiations with a substantial military buildup in the region.
Diplomatic efforts now appear stalled. Talks in Geneva between Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly showed some progress, but major differences remain.
Vice President JD Vance said that while there were “positive elements,” the president had set clear limits that Iran has yet to accept. According to the report, administration officials are no longer ruling out the possibility that diplomacy has reached its “natural end.”
Significant military buildup
Axios reports that US forces in the region now include two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of fighter jets and advanced air defence systems.
More than 150 military transport flights have delivered equipment to the Middle East. In the past 24 hours alone, an additional 50 fighter aircraft, including F-35s, F-22s and F-16s, have reportedly been deployed.
The scale of the buildup, sources suggest, indicates that the administration is not treating military pressure as a bluff.
Israel, which has been pressing for a more aggressive posture toward Iran, is said to be preparing for a possible conflict within days. US officials, meanwhile, estimate that operations could begin within weeks.
One adviser quoted by Axios said there is a “90% chance” of kinetic action in the coming weeks.
Iran has reportedly been given two weeks to submit a detailed proposal in the nuclear talks. Failing that, the report suggests Trump may opt for military action.
The Axios article also references last summer’s “Midnight Hammer” operation as evidence that the administration is prepared for rapid escalation if diplomatic efforts collapse.