This winter will test more than households' ability to keep warm. It will also test the effectiveness of Cyprus' economic policy.
Surging heating costs, expensive electricity and mounting pressure on household finances raise a broader question about the resilience of the Cypriot economy when citizens are confronted with another wave of rising prices.
The figures presented by Politis on Sunday are revealing. Within a year, heating oil prices rose by approximately 61%, while electricity and liquefied petroleum gas prices increased by 17.9% and 17.6% respectively. For many households, heating has become a difficult financial equation.
Consumers are reducing energy consumption or cutting other essential spending in order to cope. In mountain communities, where heating needs are greater, the pressure is even more acute.
State resilience is not household resilience
The government has every reason to point to fiscal stability. Budget surpluses, declining public debt and fiscal reserves are significant achievements. They provide room for manoeuvre in times of crisis and protect the country from the need to borrow under adverse conditions.
These achievements should not be underestimated.
However, the state's fiscal resilience is not the same as the economic resilience of households.
The government may possess financial buffers, but how many citizens can absorb a sudden increase in utility bills without sacrificing basic needs?
This is where the real deficit lies.
Economic policy is not judged solely by growth rates, public finances and fiscal indicators. It is also judged by whether growth translates into higher real incomes, better wages and stronger purchasing power.
In other words, are citizens able to build their own financial buffers so they can manage unexpected price increases without upsetting the family budget?
Growth must be felt
State reserves are necessary. They are not enough when society remains vulnerable to every external shock.
Targeted support for vulnerable groups may ease immediate pressures, but it cannot substitute for a coherent strategy aimed at strengthening incomes and improving productivity.
This winter therefore presents economic policymakers with a dual challenge.
On one hand, they must safeguard fiscal stability.
On the other, they must prove that economic growth can genuinely improve people's lives.
That second objective has not been achieved.
Productivity-enhancing reforms are needed, but such reforms require time to deliver results. It is time that has largely been lost over the past decade.
The least that can be done now is to begin.
