Candidate submissions open today for the upcoming 'presidential elections' in the Turkish Cypriot community, with Republican Turkish Party (CTP) candidate Tufan Erhürman holding a notable lead over Ersin Tatar of the National Unity Party (UBP).
According to a poll conducted by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS) and published in the Turkish Cypriot press on Thursday, Erhürman commands 47.6% of voting intention, while incumbent Tatar trails at 43%.
The poll, conducted in August, shows that the remaining three candidates receive minimal support. Turkish Cypriot academic Mehmet Hasgüler registers just 0.8%, Socialist Party of Cyprus candidate Osman Zorba reaches 0.6%, and Arif Salih Kırdağ barely 0.2%. The absence of a strong third candidate reinforces the view that the 'election' will likely be decided in a single round — with the final outcome hanging on the votes of undecided voters.
Undecideds currently account for 4% of the electorate — a number that almost exactly matches the 4.6-point gap between Erhürman and Tatar. In addition, 3.8% of respondents said they will not vote.
Candidate profile: Erhürman’s centrist strategy
Tufan Erhürman, leader of the largest Turkish Cypriot left-wing party, supports a federal solution to the Cyprus problem. However, his campaign avoids polarising rhetoric, aiming to reach beyond his traditional base.
To secure a majority, Erhürman needs support not only from the left but also from segments of the Turkish Cypriot centre-right, as well as from Turkish settlers with voting rights and voters who are not necessarily strong supporters of a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
Importantly, Erhürman avoids criticism of Turkey — a strategic choice aimed at deflecting attacks from the right-wing UBP, which portrays him as being at odds with Ankara.
Through this centrist approach, Erhürman is actively courting Turkish settlers and right-leaning Turkish Cypriots, betting that frustration with Ankara’s interventions in local politics may tilt votes in his favour.
Tatar fears loss of settler vote
Incumbent Ersin Tatar, meanwhile, continues to promote his two-state solution narrative. He argues that the federal model is no longer viable for Ankara and warns voters that Erhürman would be unable to gain Turkey’s support for a federation.
Tatar’s campaign is heavily focused on preventing Erhürman from gaining traction among settler communities and right-wing families. He is attempting to create clear ideological dividing lines, emphasising contrasts such as 'federation vs two states', 'left vs right', and 'settlers vs Turkish Cypriots'.
Ankara holds its cards close
Despite the high stakes, Ankara has not yet made its intentions known. Some analysts suggest that Turkey is unlikely to openly back a left-wing candidate. Yet so far, there has been no visible support for Tatar either.
A recent visit by Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz to Karpasia villages did not include any overt backing for Tatar. With the 'election' set for 19 October, there remains ample time for Ankara to make a move — possibly through symbolic gestures, such as inviting Tatar to a high-profile event in Turkey to appear alongside senior officials.
Some observers argue that if no endorsement comes from Ankara, it may be interpreted as tacit support for Erhürman. In this case, it would signal a shift in Ankara’s Cyprus policy — potentially aimed at reshaping the narrative and applying pressure on the Greek Cypriot side, which currently enjoys greater international sympathy due to Tatar’s hardline stance.
The electoral timeline
Today, party-affiliated candidates are expected to submit their applications. Independent candidates have until 15 September to file.
According to the 'High Electoral Council', the official candidate list will be finalised on 21 September, with the final names announced a day later, on 22 September. That same day, a draw will be held to determine the ballot order.
The campaign period will officially begin on 23 September. No polling will be permitted after 4 October, and the campaign will conclude on 18 October — one day before the vote.
Distribution of 'ballots' must be completed by 16 October at the latest, and all campaign activity will cease by midnight on 18 October.