By Yusuf Kanlı
Northern Cyprus entered a new chapter this week – not through fanfare or fireworks, but through ceremony and contrast. Before a solemn session of the assembly, Tufan Erhürman, jurist and leader of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), took his oath.
“I swear to preserve the existence and independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, to act with justice, equality, and loyalty to the Constitution.”
The applause was brief, the mood serious – as if the chamber collectively sensed the end of one era and the careful beginning of another.
Outside, in the expansive courtyard of the new complex on the northern edge of Nicosia – where the leader’s office, the assembly, a grand mosque, and a still-unfinished public park now share the same grounds – the transition unfolded with quiet symbolism.
The complex, commissioned at the request of his predecessor Ersin Tatar and built with Türkiye’s full support, was meant to project permanence and authority. Now, it houses a leader who campaigned on transparency, equality, and restraint – values born not of grandeur but of fatigue.
In that geometry of stone and symmetry, the irony was hard to miss: the palace built to embody dominance has become the workplace of a man elected to redefine humility as strength.
Tatar, visibly emotional, departed with full honours, declaring that he was “honoured to have completed this duty with dignity.” The ceremony was punctuated by a 41-gun salute, solemn applause, and no hint of partisanship – a rare moment of grace in the island’s turbulent politics.
Then, before the assembled dignitaries and the next generation of Turkish Cypriots watching from the stands, Erhürman delivered his first address. His tone was steady, his words deliberate. “This is not a time for celebration, but to restore trust – to listen more, speak less, and rebuild faith in our institutions.”
He spoke of children – of their right to grow up on an island at peace, “not as victims of unsolved problems but as citizens of a just order.” He vowed to pursue a fair and sustainable settlement, warning that the north would “not enter talks merely for the sake of talking.”
“We will negotiate only when there is a prospect of progress, and always on the basis of political equality,” he said.
After years of imported campaign consultants and loud promises, Turkish Cypriots had chosen the only candidate who simply asked them to think and hope. As veteran journalist Hüseyin Elmekçi, the editor of Haber Kıbrıs news portal and web TV, observed dryly, “Erhürman didn’t win because he shouted louder; he won because he made silence respectable again.”
Ankara’s three voices: Diplomacy, dogma, and discipline
Back in Ankara, the mood was more complicated. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, returning from a three-nation Gulf tour, sought to calm the political storm stirred by his coalition partner’s nationalist rhetoric. Speaking aboard his plane, he was firm but reassuring.
“It was an important election, and the will of the Turkish Cypriot people is deeply respected by us,” Erdoğan said, confirming that he had already called to congratulate Erhürman.
His message was both symbolic and strategic – an effort to steady relations after Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli had declared that the north should “vote to become Türkiye’s 82nd province.”
The remark detonated across Ankara and Nicosia alike. For over sixty years, every Turkish government – secular, conservative, civilian, or military – has explicitly ruled out annexation, citing the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee as the foundation of Türkiye’s legal presence on the island.
Before Erdoğan’s plane landed, his Cyprus messaging was wobbling. His intervention was designed to reset it. “Our relations with Northern Cyprus will continue exactly as they have under AK Party governments,” he said. “It is unthinkable for us to look upon Northern Cyprus with distance or indifference.”
His tone – calm, deliberate, and grounded in legitimacy – drew a clear contrast with Bahçeli’s nationalist theatre. Erdoğan reaffirmed Türkiye’s enduring stance: solidarity with Turkish Cypriots, respect for their democracy, and rejection of annexation. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz reinforced the message, praising “the maturity of the Turkish Cypriot people” and pledging continued partnership “within the framework of international law.”
Three voices – Bahçeli’s dogma, Erdoğan’s diplomacy, Yılmaz’s discipline – spoke in uneasy harmony. Together they formed the symphony, and sometimes the dissonance, of Ankara’s Cyprus policy.
For Turkish Cypriots, Erdoğan’s tone offered both reassurance and reminder: reassurance that Türkiye respects their democratic will; reminder that it remains the indispensable arbiter of their political future.
The UBP’s volcano
If Ankara was cooling tempers, Nicosia was simmering. Inside the ruling National Unity Party (UBP), head of the ruling coalition Ünal Üstel faced open rebellion. The aftershocks of Tatar’s humiliating defeat had exposed deep cracks in loyalty and leadership.
First, Üstel floated rumours that six representatives in the assembly who had underperformed during the campaign would face disciplinary action – a move seen as both petty and panicked. Then, in a late-night meeting, he tried to buy peace by offering cabinet seats to three prominent critics: Hasan Taçoy, Faiz Sucuoğlu, and Kutlu Evren. All three declined. “The time has come not for personal advancement, but for collective reflection,” one told him.
Within hours, calls for an extraordinary party congress spread like wildfire. “The UBP has lost the street, the moral high ground, and now the presidency,” a senior figure lamented. “If we don’t rebuild credibility, the next election could finish us.”
Meanwhile, the coalition’s smaller partners – the Rebirth Party (YDP) and Democratic Party (DP) – began positioning themselves for survival. The YDP hinted it would support early elections if “renewal” didn’t happen soon. Rumours quickly coalesced into strategy: Snap elections in late January.
Officially, the idea was to “restore stability.” In reality, it was a pre-emptive strike. Serdar Denktaş’s new party, the Communal Justice and Struggle Party (TAM), founded in early August, will not be eligible to contest elections until February – and the ruling bloc knows it.
Yet behind the manoeuvres lies a simpler motive: Money. Public-sector salaries are due to rise by roughly 40 percent in March – a politically popular but fiscally ruinous decision.
A senior official admitted privately: “We can finance the raise through domestic borrowing – but then we must repay through new taxes, customs, and fines. Any government that implements this in March will be hated by April. Better an election in winter than a backlash in spring.”
Ankara, for its part, is wary. Turkish officials have advised against destabilising moves, warning that an ill-timed election could coincide with a UN attempt to revive peace talks.
Üstel insists “everything is under control.” Few are convinced. As one UBP elder sighed, “You can’t soothe a volcano with a cabinet reshuffle – or a pay rise you can’t afford.”
The CTP’s balancing act: From opposition to ownership
While the UBP argues with itself, the CTP faces a different problem – the burden of victory. For the first time in nearly fifteen years, the island’s oldest left-of-centre party holds the top office. Yet the assembly remains dominated by its rivals. “We’ve won the presidency, not the system,” one CTP official noted.
Under party rules, Erhürman’s election automatically vacated his chairmanship, leaving Secretary-General Erkut Şahali as acting leader until a convention “soon”. The contenders – Şahali, pragmatic veteran Asım Akansoy, and reformist MP Sıla Usar İncirli – represent not factions but tones: cautious, strategic, and generational.
Within the party, the debate is less about ideology than about style. Should the CTP remain the voice of social justice and opposition, or evolve into a disciplined governing partner aligned with Erhürman’s moderate leadership?
His calm demeanour and legal precision have already reshaped public perception – the so-called “Erhürman Effect.” As one party executive put it, “The presidency speaks for the state; the CTP must still speak for the people.”
Erhürman’s first appointment, veteran diplomat Mehmet Dana, as his undersecretary, signalled continuity in diplomacy. Fikri Toros, the party’s foreign-affairs head and a respected economist, is expected to advise on international outreach.
Toros summed up the new challenge: “We’ve moved from protest to power. Now we must deliver – and prepare for a possible early election next spring.”
If the UBP fractures further, that election could arrive sooner than anyone expects – testing whether the CTP’s moral authority can translate into legislative power.
Beyond the island: Diplomacy in transition
Erhürman’s election has already recalibrated the diplomatic mood. UN envoy María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, is expected to be in the region within days, has been struggling for months to revive dialogue. Now she faces a counterpart who speaks the language of process rather than posture. “Talks must be time-bound, result-oriented, and grounded in political equality,” Erhürman insists – terms that echo the UN’s own framework.
He has also been careful to reassure Ankara. “No president of the TRNC has ever conducted negotiations without consulting the Republic of Türkiye,” he reminded in his inauguration speech, adding that this relationship is “unique and incomparable.”
Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides cautiously welcomed the result as “an opportunity to restore trust.” Yet both sides know that equality – not unity – remains the hardest word.
In Brussels, diplomats call Erhürman “predictable”. His approach could unlock low-level cooperation under the Green Line Regulation and cultural programs, provided Ankara stays pragmatic.
And Ankara, for now, seems inclined to do just that. “Respect for the Turkish Cypriot people’s will” has become Erdoğan’s refrain – a diplomatic anchor after months of nationalist noise.
A senior Turkish diplomat described Erhürman’s victory as “a political dividend we didn’t campaign for but can now capitalise on.” Still, the region remains volatile – Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and Türkiye’s own economic constraints keep policy cautious.