Expectations are low ahead of today’s first meeting between President Nikos Christodoulides and the new Turkish Cypriot leader, Tufan Erhürman, due to the differing approaches the two sides maintain on how negotiations could restart. The Turkish Cypriot side is calling for a change in the methodology of the talks, while the Greek Cypriot side supports the immediate resumption of dialogue without terms or preconditions.
During today’s meeting, Nikos Christodoulides and Tufan Erhürman will have the opportunity to get to know each other better and exchange initial views on the Cyprus problem in a friendly setting. The meeting will take place at 9:30 a.m. at the residence of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative, in the Nicosia airport area. It is expected to last around an hour and will be mainly exploratory in nature. The two leaders will sound out each other’s intentions and discuss the next steps ahead of the visit of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín, in early December.
Possible scenarios
The possibility of announcing some Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) cannot be ruled out, but it is considered rather unlikely. According to information obtained by Politis, there has been no preparatory work between the two sides ahead of today’s meeting that would indicate a CBM announcement, though surprises can never be excluded. Even more distant is the prospect of agreement on substantive issues, such as the actual resumption of negotiations.
The most realistic scenario is that the two leaders will outline the next steps, possibly announcing a further meeting before Holguín’s arrival on the island - either at the level of the leaders themselves or at the level of negotiators. However, both sides stress that any new leaders’ meeting must have a concrete purpose, and today will reveal whether there is sufficient ground for further contacts before December.
Caution on both sides
The caution displayed by both sides stems from the strategies they expect to pursue in the coming period in order to achieve their respective goals on the Cyprus issue.
The Greek Cypriot side does not wish to enter a discussion on CBMs without a clear prospect of reopening negotiations. It believes such a discussion, without substantive talks, would lead back to the deadlock experienced under Ersin Tatar. It is also mindful that the new Turkish Cypriot leader does not have extensive room to delay efforts to restart talks, given public opinion and expectations within the Turkish Cypriot community - especially since Tatar lost the election partly because he failed to break the stalemate. Therefore, the Greek Cypriot side is not expected to follow the approach outlined by Erhürman, who publicly stated that if no agreement is reached on changing the methodology, a second negotiating track for CBMs should be created until the Greek Cypriot side accepts the 4–5 points he has set.
At the same time, the Turkish Cypriot side is not expected to accept a resumption of talks without at least some of the conditions set by its leader being met. Its goal will be to secure the mediation of the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy in order to bridge the two sides’ differences with a formula that incorporates some of Erhürman’s key requirements. As a result, the Turkish Cypriot strategy will not allow the Greek Cypriot side to easily move away from a discussion on the methodology of the talks through a premature “positive atmosphere” that could create the impression that obstacles have been overcome and the time for negotiations has arrived.