The third Noverna poll shows high levels of undecided voters, narrow gaps between parties and an increased likelihood of a multi-party parliament, with the electoral landscape remaining open right up to polling day.
“The picture remains unchanged, not so much in terms of the numbers but in terms of the trend,” Politis director Dionysis Dionysiou said, commenting on the first part of Noverna’s third poll. He stressed that undecided voters remain the key protagonists in May’s electoral contest.
Undecided voters shape the outcome
Speaking on Politis radio’s ‘Morning Review’ programme, Dionysiou said that in the previous survey, the combined total of “undecided, blank vote, will not vote” stood at around 28.5 per cent, while it has now fallen to 25 per cent – still an exceptionally high figure.
“One in four Cypriot citizens still has not made up their mind,” he said, adding that “this number is the largest party in Cyprus”. In his reading of the data, this pool of voters will play a decisive role in shaping the final election result.
Based on the survey findings, he noted that those who are now undecided compared with how they voted in 2021 mainly come from the two largest parties. “Most come from the two major parties, DISY at around 13 per cent and AKEL at around 19 per cent,” he said. He was quick to clarify, however, that “this may mean nothing at all”, as the political landscape has changed with the emergence of new formations.
As he explained, a segment of the electorate “is exploring the new parties”, such as ALMA, Direct Democracy and Volt.
Party standings and close margins
On the overall party picture, Dionysiou said that “DISY and AKEL continue to lead”, confirming a trend recorded in other polls. “The third party remains stable,” he added, with ELAM holding its position.
Where Noverna’s findings differ, he said, is that “Direct Democracy led by Fidias (Panayiotou) is shown as the fourth party, with Odysseas Michaelides’ ALMA in fifth place”. He also pointed out that “the two leading parties have a safe margin of around six points”, but “there is no safe distance from ELAM through to Direct Democracy”.
As a result, he explained, ELAM, ALMA and Direct Democracy are separated by very small margins, while “even DIKO is close enough to change the order”. This makes the race from fourth to sixth place completely open.
Commenting on the projection of percentages, Dionysiou said: “We are not focusing on projections, as we have said before. Projections are simply used to indicate a trend.” If voters move in line with the momentum shown in the poll, he said, the picture would remain broadly similar to current levels: around 23 per cent for DISY, 21–22 per cent for AKEL, ELAM in third place with 13 per cent, and the remaining parties ranging between 8 per cent and 11 per cent.
Risk of a fragmented parliament
Dionysiou made particular reference to the prospect of a fragmented parliament. “If we end up with a six-party parliament, we will have parties with sizeable parliamentary groups,” he said, but possibly also “greater difficulty in decision-making”.
He warned that “the problems will be much greater if we move towards a seven-party or eight-party parliament”, noting that in such a scenario Volt could also enter parliament. “The largest party might have only 13–14 MPs,” he said, meaning that “very broad consensus and a high degree of political maturity will be needed in the new parliament to pass decisions”.
Impact of Drousiotis allegations
Turning to the impact of current affairs, Dionysiou said the fieldwork period did not allow the poll to fully capture the effects of the allegations made by Makarios Drousiotis. “I don’t think it really had time to register them. It had just begun,” he said, adding that “in the final survey we will conduct in May, the effects will become much clearer”.
Even so, he suggested that “ALMA may have been affected somewhat more”, attributing this to “the crisis that emerged and the political confrontation”. He added that “Irene Charalambidou’s clear alignment no longer seems to add much to ALMA” and admitted that “personally, I would have expected more”.
Low trust in institutions
Finally, commenting on the qualitative findings of the poll, Dionysiou said public trust in those in power and in political parties remains low. Ratings on key issues are “very low”, he said, with approval of the president standing “around 24 to 25 per cent” and “no particular confidence evident in how issues are being handled”.
Similarly, he added, “people do not show much trust in parties either”. In his assessment, this also reflects the fact that citizens now view parliamentary elections as a stepping stone to the presidential race. As he noted, a share of voters “approaching 80 per cent” sees the parliamentary ballot as a preliminary round for the 2028 presidential election.