The two leaders will meet this afternoon for the first time in the physical presence of UN Personal Envoy María Ángela Holguín, straight after a joint meeting at the Anthropological Lab of the Committee on Missing Persons is held.
Regarding the trilateral meeting, three main issues are on the agenda: the resumption of talks, the confidence-building measures (CBMs) discussed during the previous 5+1 meetings with the guarantor powers in New York and Geneva, and their own respective CBMs tabled separately.
Today will be their second meeting, after the first was held in the UN Protected Area in Nicosia on November 20, during which Holguín spoke to them via teleconference.
The first meeting was reportedly held in a positive atmosphere, with the two leaders instructing their negotiators to meet regularly to prepare for the UN envoy’s arrival to the island and a possible ‘5+1’ enlarged meeting.
Since then, the negotiators have only met twice, on November 28 and yesterday, at least officially. According to sources, the negotiators discussed the way ahead in the effort to achieve a breakthrough that would lead to a resumption of talks, as well as how to implement the CBMs agreed upon in Geneva and New York, and other initiatives that either side has proposed to improve the climate between the two communities.
While discussions between the negotiators did not widen the gap between the two sides, neither did they narrow the gap. Progress is technically feasible on all three issues but it remains to be seen whether the leaders can show their political will in practice and push the agenda forward during their face-to-face meeting and in the presence of Holguín.
The positions
After their first meeting, President Nikos Christodoulides reiterated his wish to resume talks from where they left off in Crans-Montana. Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman’s consistent position has been the need to adopt four proposals on the methodology of a future negotiation process. These are: accepting political equality from the outset, setting a timeframe for talks, confirming past convergences, and ensuring no return to the status quo if the talks fail and the Greek Cypriot side is deemed responsible.
Some analysts with knowledge of the talks argue the first three are relatively simple while the latter is tricker though not impossible. Others say even that’s an optimistic viewpoint.
On convening a new 5+1 with the guarantor powers under the UN Secretary-General’s auspices, Christodoulides says he’s ready to go before the end of the year. Erhürman argues the two leaders need to prepare the ground for agreement on the CBMs tabled at the previous enlarged meetings before calling another one. He specifically raised the issue of new crossing points at Mia Milia, Louroudjina and Pyroi, as well as the bicommunal project to install solar panels in the buffer zone with EU support.
On unilateral initiatives, both sides have proposed a set of CBMs to implement in an effort to improve the climate on the island. It is not clear which initiatives the Greek Cypriot side prioritises at present, while on the Turkish Cypriot side, Erhürman announced a 10-point package of proposals straight after his first meeting with Christodoulides, including issues related to mixed marriages, and easing the severe congestion experienced at Agios Dometios crossing.
Prospects
It is on the latter two areas – CBMs that could open the path to a new 5+1 and other intercommunal initiatives – where the two leaders could possibly make progress in the current period. The picture will be clearer following today’s meeting, but on the prospects of convening the 5+1, Holguín’s visits to Athens and Ankara after Nicosia will be key.
For a resumption of talks, the stakes are higher and there is still some distance to cover. Christodoulides and Erhürman have to agree on the methodology and basis of talks, while Ankara, which still speaks of sovereign equality and two sovereign states, needs to be convinced to embark on a new negotiation process.
EU envoy here to listen – for now
European Commission Special Envoy for Cyprus Johannes Hahn is also in town and will meet with Christodoulides this morning. He is scheduled to meet with Erhürman tomorrow, the first such meeting of the EU envoy with a Turkish Cypriot leader.
Hahn is here on an exploratory mission to listen to a number of relevant actors. He will meet with Holguín to discuss the process but also how the two may collaborate in future. He will also meet with the two negotiators, Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, House President and DISY leader Annita Demetriou, AKEL leader Stefanos Stefanou, and representatives of civil society.
Speaking on Wednesday, Government Spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis noted that Hahn’s presence could be put to good use. EU involvement in efforts to resume talks was a goal of President Christodoulides from the outset, he reminded.
On today’s meeting, the spokesman said Christodoulides’ only goal was for the meeting to be “a decisive step towards resuming negotiations from the point at which they were interrupted,” always within the framework of UN resolutions and EU principles, values and law. Asked about Erhürman’s methodology proposals, he said, “there can be no conditions” to resuming talks within the agreed framework.
Letymbiotis also noted that the president will convene the National Council tomorrow to brief the political leadership on the outcome of his latest contacts.
Erhürman: EU Presidency and elections will hinder talks
Speaking to Turkish journalists on Wednesday, Erhürman appeared cautiously optimistic that a new window could open on the Cyprus issue. He told the visiting press that CBMs will be discussed in today’s meeting, repeating the view that a 5+1 meeting should not be called unless preparatory work shows there is ground for progress.
The Turkish Cypriot leader also argued that the Republic of Cyprus’s six-month EU Presidency and parliamentary elections in May will make it difficult to launch a substantive negotiation process in the first half of 2026.
Asked about Greek Cypriot media reports suggesting Donald Trump might take an interest in the Cyprus issue, Erhürman replied he considers them “rumours” and “unprocessed scenarios”.
Fate of the missing
On the two leaders’ visit to the CMP’s Anthropological Lab, Letymbiotis said it sends a “strong symbolic message”.
“It is a reminder of our shared responsibility and our shared debt to all the families seeking justice, and it sends a message of determination that the search for the truth, the search for the fate of our missing persons remains undiminished and ongoing," he said.