*By Fiona Mullen
A timely publication of ideas…
On 9 February 2026 the Cyprus Peace and Dialogue Center (CPDC) published a report of which I am a co-author, entitled “Proposal for a Consultative Body for civic engagement”. It was timely, because only 10 days prior to this, UN Security Council Resolution 2815/2026 had asked the two leaders to:
“…increase their support to, and ensure a meaningful role for, civil society engagement in peace efforts, in particular by forming a consultative body as agreed in the informal broader-format meeting in July 2025…” [emphasis added].
In this report we propose a two-tier body comprising experts and randomly selected members of the public called a “civic assembly”. We try to anticipate all of the “yes, but…” questions that people might have about assemblies: from how a consultative body would be constructed, where it would draw its legitimacy, who would decide on participants, how you would keep it protected from the inevitable attempts at political interference, how you would encourage ordinary people to take part, and so on. (Fun fact: I wanted to include as an incentive “a chance to win a Mercedes”, which I do think would be a very powerful incentive for many Cypriots. But that was rightly edited by my co-authors to a more sober: “an award that is contextually valued in Cyprus”.)
…as we potentially head for a step-by-step process…
Another reason why it is timely is because it presents a range of mechanisms that could help break deadlocks in any new process for a settlement of the Cyprus problem, including the step-by-step process that appeared just as we had signed off on our report. On 8 February the Director of Politis, Dionysis Dionysiou, published an article proposing a phased, or “staged”, Cyprus settlement process. Published in both Greek and English, it is entitled, “A Staged Settlement for Cyprus: Building Trust Before the Final Vote”.
Now, that article contains a lot of the arguments that many, including me, have been making for a while: that the old methodology of aiming for a “big bang” solution is structurally flawed, that we need a revised process, and, for those who believe it is the only way, we need to get all sides comfortable with a step-by-step approach. But because of the level of detail in the Politis article, I have also jokingly called it “the leak masquerading as an opinion piece”. In other words, it looked like the leak of a serious plan that is being worked on.
…because Europe is in a hurry to fix defence…
Why do I think something is a-cooking? Primarily because a whole bunch of things are going on around us that are making an “end” to the Cyprus problem a rather urgent matter for Europe, the US and others.
First, as has now been widely acknowledged, the EU cannot rely on the US any more for its defence. This makes the EU very keen indeed on getting closer to Türkiye (Turkey), the second largest army in NATO. This was underlined by the statement on X of the EU Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos. After her visit to Ankara late last week, she posted the following.
“As realities in Europe are changing, we need to look with fresh eyes at EU–Türkiye relations. With @HakanFidan, I discussed steps needed to build the trust to strengthen our relations, advance regional infrastructure projects & reap the full potential of our economic relations.”
Parallel to this, the idea of variable geometry has been resurrected, whereby “coalitions of the willing” move closer in defence or EU matters, while others who do not want to take part remain on the sidelines but cannot veto. The Financial Times has also reported on discussions of a kind of partial EU membership for Ukraine but also potentially Turkey, where countries join first but only get the full benefits later.
For smaller countries this means, in short, be part of the big gang or get ignored/bullied. I believe that this is why Greece’s prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, despite some opposition at home, went out of his way to sign a number of cooperation agreements with Turkey this week.
…the US is in a hurry to do commercial deals…
It is not just the EU that is in a hurry. The US, which is still wooing Cyprus and Greece with security arrangements, is also keen on rapprochement and economic cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean region. You can see this in statements from the US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack. In November 2025 he spoke about “cooperation from the Caspian to the Mediterranean”. Then, in the infamous “abscess” quote, Mr Barrack said that Cyprus had to be part of any deal.
Currently the Cyprus problem prevents a great deal of potential EU-Turkey cooperation and a great deal of potential regional economic cooperation. At a time when we all need energy security, and Cyprus needs even more energy and water for the big tech it hopes to attract, the Cyprus problem is standing in the way of both the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), which would run from Crete to Cyprus and Israel, and the submarine electricity interconnector which Turkey wants to build from Turkey to northern Cyprus. The Cyprus problem partly stands in the way of a natural gas pipeline that was planned from Israel to Turkey and might yet be resurrected; it also potentially stands in the way of offshore gas exploration for Syria. That’s a lot of powerful interests getting impatient.
…and Turkey might be warming to Israel again
Perhaps most seriously of all, the ongoing Cyprus problem acts as a potential tinder box between Turkey and Israel at a time when relations between the two countries have been very tense. The most alarming references have been about Turkey going to war with Israel over Cyprus.
That might already be starting to change, however, following revelations that Israel and Turkey have had high-level meetings in the past month and following Turkey’s recent overtures towards Israel.
This would explain why something is a-cooking on the Cyprob…
What does this all mean for Cyprus? It means that, in this strange new world of “might is right”, the Cyprus problem has become a major irritant for the big players. For them, the risks of losing this opportunity to cut conflict risks in the Eastern Mediterranean are too high to wait another nine years (2017-2026) for the leaders in Cyprus to agree on the basis of a settlement, so that they can spend another nine years (2008-2017) working on one that still ends up failing.
…and why it’s so important to embed citizens in the process
To get back to my point at the beginning: given all the above, we should assume that some kind of “end” to the Cyprus problem might be about to be demanded of this island. Moreover, as those demanding it are now in a hurry, they will no longer be so nice about it.
If the Cyprus problem is indeed going to be settled in a step-by step-way, and if a hurried agreement on that is coming very soon, the best way to ensure that the settlement is stable in the long term is to give it democratic legitimacy. And the best way to do that is to embed citizens in the process. Give them a stake in it working. Give them the agency to fix the many wrinkles that will arise along the way of a step-by-step process. This is the only way to keep the candle of reunification burning.
Fiona Mullen is Director of Sapienta Economics. This article first appeared on SapientaCyprus.substack.com.