A surge in violence in western Mexico has renewed concerns about security arrangements for the 2026 World Cup, which the country will co host next summer with the United States and Canada.
According to experts cited by BBC Sport, the situation may be contained, but reprisals by criminal organisations following strikes against their leadership are often high risk and difficult to manage.
Violence Linked To Operation Against Cartel Leader
The recent escalation is reported to be connected to a Mexican military operation in which Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho and identified as head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was killed.
The organisation is described as one of the country’s most powerful and violent criminal networks. It reportedly responded with armed clashes with security forces, road blockades and vehicle arson attacks.
The violence began in the state of Jalisco, in central western Mexico, where authorities declared a red alert level. It subsequently spread to at least twelve other regions. Videos posted on social media showed armed individuals patrolling streets, with smoke visible over parts of cities. According to the same reports, at least 25 members of the National Guard were killed within 24 hours.
Host Cities And Tournament Planning
Jalisco is of particular significance because Guadalajara, the state capital with a population of more than one million, is scheduled to host four matches. A further five matches are set to take place in Mexico City and four in Monterrey.
Javier Escauriaza, Assistant Professor of Criminal Law at the University of Nottingham, stated that when the state exerts pressure on criminal organisations, retaliation is common. He noted that such dynamics can become difficult to control. Experts also point out that the death of a leader can create a power vacuum, increasing the risk of internal conflict and further violence until a new balance is established
At the same time, analysts indicate that cartels may have an economic incentive to maintain stability ahead of the World Cup. Beyond corruption and influence in local structures, they are reported to have activities linked to the local economy, including hospitality and catering. An international sporting event that attracts tourism may therefore align with their financial interests.
Mr Escauriaza added that the response of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel follows a logic of demonstrating strength when leadership is targeted. He said that social media videos function as a multiplier, reinforcing the perception of a nationwide reaction.
Travel Advisories And International Response
The United States government advised Americans in Jalisco to remain in a safe location until further notice. Canada cancelled flights to Puerto Vallarta airport, while flight tracking applications recorded route changes and aircraft returning to departure airports.
Karina Garcia Reyes, Senior Lecturer in Criminology at UWE Bristol, assessed that for tourists next summer the risk exists but is not necessarily high, provided there is no new wave of military operations and authorities are able to reduce risks in the most affected areas. She said visitors should follow official guidance.
Security discussions surrounding the tournament had already intensified in the United States due to reactions to the increased presence of federal forces and the involvement of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. European supporters’ organisations had expressed concerns over the militarisation of policing in US cities. The latest violence has now shifted attention to the Mexican segment of the competition.
Within Mexico, four football matches, two in the top division and two in the second division, were postponed on Sunday due to the situation, indicating that the impact has already extended to domestic sport.
Monica Serrano Caretto, Professor of International Relations at El Colegio de Mexico, stated that many in the country hope the violence represents an isolated but intense reaction that will subside as the cartel reorganises. She warned, however, that an alternative scenario of instability and unpredictable violence remains possible. She also emphasised that the weapon capabilities of cartels have historically been a critical factor, with previous appearances involving weaponry associated with military style conflict.
John Benjamin, former United Kingdom Ambassador to Mexico from 2021 to 2024, described the scale of the response as particularly serious and linked the recent climate to increased political pressure on Mexico to adopt a tougher stance against cartels. He noted that the position of the Trump administration, which has labelled cartels as terrorist organisations and pressed for greater cooperation, is influencing developments.
According to BBC Sport, FIFA has been asked for comment. The central question remains whether tensions will ease in the coming days or whether the death of El Mencho will trigger a new and more unstable cycle of violence, with implications for security and the international image of the tournament.
With information from BBC.