A majority of Europeans in several large EU member states doubt that their public pension systems will remain financially viable by the time today’s working-age population retires, according to recent survey findings, set against a backdrop of rapid population ageing and mounting fiscal pressure.
Affordability concerns dominate
A YouGov survey conducted in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland shows that most respondents of working age believe their country’s state pension system will be unaffordable in the future. Around two-thirds of respondents in France, Germany and Spain said the system would not be financially sustainable when people currently in their 30s and 40s reach retirement age.
At the same time, respondents across these countries consider current state pensions insufficient. This dual perception – that pensions are both too costly and too low – underpins much of the uncertainty captured in the survey.
Spending levels across Europe
According to OECD data, Greece and Italy allocate the highest share of national income to public pensions among OECD members, at around 16% of GDP. Austria, France and Portugal follow, with pension spending accounting for approximately 13% to 14% of GDP.
Across the EU27, public pension expenditure averages about 11% of GDP, based on the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report.
Confidence gap between generations
Survey results indicate a clear divide between age groups. People already retired are consistently more optimistic about their country’s ability to fund state pensions, while non-retired respondents express significantly lower confidence.
More than 70% of non-retired Italians and Poles said they were not confident they would have enough income for a comfortable retirement. The equivalent figures stand at 66% in France and 64% in Spain.
Limited support for reform measures
Despite acknowledging structural challenges, respondents showed limited backing for common reform options. Measures such as raising the retirement age, increasing taxes on working-age people, reducing benefits across the board, or cutting public services for older people attracted low support.
The most acceptable options among both working and retired respondents were policies that support older workers in remaining in employment for longer, and the introduction of additional compulsory contributions to private or workplace pension schemes. Preferences varied by country: Polish respondents showed stronger support for extending working lives, while Germans favoured mandatory private or occupational pension contributions. Italy stood out as the only country where a majority supported reducing or eliminating state pensions for high-income retirees.
Structural pressures on pension systems
Most EU state pension systems operate on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning current workers finance current retirees. Demographic trends are placing increasing strain on this model.
OECD projections show that the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age individuals (20–64) is expected to rise sharply over the next three decades. In several EU countries, including Greece, Italy, Spain and Poland, the working-age population is projected to shrink by more than 30% by the 2060s.
The gender pension gap also remains significant. Across the EU, average pension income for women is around 24.5% lower than for men, reflecting differences in lifetime earnings, employment patterns and caregiving responsibilities.
EU-level policy direction
In response, the European Commission has outlined a two-pillar approach aimed at strengthening retirement savings and increasing private investment. The strategy seeks to mobilise up to €10 trillion in household bank deposits across the EU, partly by encouraging greater participation in private pension and long-term savings schemes.
The initiative is also linked to broader EU priorities, including financing defence, security, and the digital and green transitions, as demographic pressures on public finances continue to intensify.