Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is facing his most serious electoral challenge in over a decade, with a new poll suggesting a sharp collapse in support less than seven weeks before parliamentary elections on April 12.
According to a survey conducted by Median and published by Hungarian outlet HVG, the opposition Tisza Party has widened its lead over Orban’s ruling Fidesz to 20 percentage points among decided voters. Tisza commands 55 percent support compared with 35 percent for Fidesz, up from a 12-point lead in mid-January.
If replicated at the ballot box, such a margin could hand Tisza a parliamentary supermajority, dramatically altering Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years of Orban’s rule.
Momentum shifts to Peter Magyar
The Tisza party is led by Peter Magyar, a former insider within Hungary’s political establishment who has pledged to reverse what critics describe as the country’s slide toward illiberal governance.
Magyar said the poll shows his party is on track to secure a constitutional majority, which would allow it to dismantle key elements of Orban’s political system. That system has led to the freezing of more than $20 billion in European Union funds over rule-of-law and corruption concerns.
Analysts caution that Fidesz cannot yet be counted out. However, the scale of the lead is the largest recorded so far by independent pollsters.
Hungary’s currency strengthened following publication of the poll, with the forint rising 0.6 percent against the euro and approaching its strongest level in nearly two years. Investors appear to be betting that a Magyar victory could unlock frozen EU funds and revive discussions about eventual euro adoption.
The war narrative loses traction
Orban has centred much of his campaign on opposition to military involvement in Ukraine and on portraying himself as a guarantor of national security. A vocal critic of EU policy toward Russia, he has framed the election as a choice between “peace and war,” alleging that a Tisza government would draw Hungary into the conflict.
Magyar has rejected those claims, pledging instead to restore Hungary’s standing within the European Union and diversify energy supplies away from Russia. He has also proposed a broad anti-corruption drive aimed at redirecting funds to healthcare and education.
Scandals weigh on government
The poll suggests voter concerns extend beyond sluggish economic growth and a cost-of-living crisis. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they believed Orban’s government knew or probably knew about hazardous pollution levels at a battery plant operated by Samsung SDI north of Budapest but failed to act.
The government had championed large-scale battery investments as part of its strategy to position Hungary as a European hub for electric vehicle production. However, the sector has faced criticism over environmental risks and limited economic returns.
Election outlook
Median’s survey was conducted between February 18 and 23 among 1,000 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. While some independent polls show a narrower single-digit lead for Tisza, government-aligned pollsters continue to project a Fidesz victory.
Supporters of Tisza are seen as more motivated to vote, which may amplify the opposition’s advantage among decided voters. The far-right Mi Hazank is also projected to enter parliament and could potentially align with Fidesz if required.
With less than seven weeks until voters head to the polls, Hungary appears poised for its most competitive election in a generation, one that could redefine its relationship with Brussels and reshape its domestic political order.
Source: Bloombgerg