As the UN High-Level Week ends, the question remains pending as to whether the two leaders from Cyprus will meet in the presence of a third party in New York.
Saturday’s meeting, 8pm Cyprus time, between UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman should clarify whether the leaders are flying home the day after – albeit on different routes – or delaying their flights.
Longing for a trilateral
President Nikos Christodoulides first raised hopes of a new trilateral with Guterres after his meeting with Erhürman on 9 September.
A week later, Guterres poured cold water on the prospect of a trilateral or 5+1 on the margins of the UN General Assembly, saying: “There is still a lot of work to be done.”
Almost two months after the UN chief left Cyprus, he was not convinced the two leaders had made enough progress on confidence-building measures (CBMs), methodology and substance.
A day after Guterres’ comment, at the last leaders’ meeting on 17 September, Christodoulides said he tabled 19 “new ideas” in all three areas where progress is required.
He shared those ideas in New York, first with UN Personal Envoy María Ángela Holguín and then with Guterres on Thursday. Speaking to the press, he said the Secretary-General was considering a possible trilateral. Christodoulides also highlighted the EU-Turkey track, though that file is more likely to have an impact, if any, on the convening of a 5+1 than trilateral.
Focus on CBMs
Also on Thursday, the two negotiators, Menelaos Menelaou and Mehmet Dana, held a joint meeting with Holguín and UN Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo. According to sources, the four conducted an overview of the state of play on CBMs.
Christodoulides had initially downplayed the importance of CBMs as a precondition to convening a new 5+1. However, following Guterres’ position on the lack of progress and the last-minute tabling of “new ideas”, it seems there is a broader recognition of the need to move forward in all three areas identified by the UN chief.
The question remains, where do the sides have room to show they are making adequate progress?
They appear to disagree on the content and delivery of a ‘convergences document’ being prepared by the UN and have reached a stumbling block over new crossing points.
Could they focus instead on a package of smaller CBMs, to secure, at the least, a trilateral with Guterres in New York?
Erhürman’s stance
Before leaving the island for New York, Erhürman stressed that Guterres’ positions were almost identical to those of the Turkish Cypriot side. He argued that the UN chief did not want talks for the sake of talks, or to repeat mistakes of the past.
It remains to be seen how far Erhürman is prepared to go to reach a common understanding with Christodoulides; whether Ankara is ready to shift from its current position; and how much the upcoming ‘parliamentary’ and local elections in the north will impact developments.
