A report by the Financial Times, citing Iranian sources, has suggested that Tehran is considering possible strikes against American military targets in southern and southeastern Europe in the event of a renewed conflict with the United States.
According to the report, Bulgaria and Cyprus feature among the locations being examined as potential targets for retaliation.
Concerns over Akrotiri
This is not the first time the British military base at RAF Akrotiri has come under scrutiny.
In early March, a Shahed-type drone struck facilities at the base, causing limited damage but no injuries. Cypriot and British sources at the time assessed that the drone had most likely been launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The issue of military bases in Cyprus has also been raised officially by Iran. In late July, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed concerns to the Cypriot side regarding the use of foreign military installations on the island in operations related to Iran.
The British government, however, clarified in March that RAF Akrotiri would not be included in the UK-US agreement governing the use of British bases for collective defence operations in the region.
Cyprus on preventive alert
Government sources who spoke to Politis insisted that Cyprus is not a factor in military escalation, stressing that the Republic of Cyprus has consistently acted as a pillar of stability, security and cooperation, as well as a bridge between the European Union and the wider Middle East.
The same sources noted that Cyprus maintains open diplomatic channels with Iran and continues to favour diplomacy.
While avoiding direct comment on the report, their remarks suggested ongoing communication between Nicosia and Tehran and indicated no immediate alarm on the government's part.
At the same time, official sources quoted by the Cyprus News Agency (CNA) said that enhanced precautionary security measures have been in place for several months and that the government is closely monitoring developments.
"Don't be crazy..."
The atmosphere in Tehran is described as increasingly hardline, with figures close to the regime viewing a broader conflict as a realistic possibility.
One source quoted by the Financial Times said that if the United States were to launch another large-scale attack, Iran's response could extend beyond the Middle East.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already warned that military bases used for attacks against Iran could be considered legitimate targets.
Tensions have also increased around Bulgaria, which in July approved the temporary deployment of up to eight KC-135 aerial refuelling aircraft and 250 military personnel at Bezmer Air Base. Tehran reacted strongly to the move.
So far, there has been no official confirmation or denial of the report by the Iranian government.
Military analysts quoted by the Financial Times argue that recent leadership changes within the Revolutionary Guards involving hardline figures, made by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, have increased expectations inside Tehran of a renewed confrontation.
One of the Iranian sources quoted by the newspaper described the message as:
"Don't be crazy because we're worse."
The remark was reportedly directed at chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and security chief Mohsen Rezaei.
Meanwhile, negotiations concerning the opening of the Strait of Hormuz have made no progress, while US President Donald Trump has confirmed that no talks are currently scheduled.
Greece on alert
Greece has already begun taking precautionary measures, with its armed forces reportedly on heightened readiness.
According to enikos.gr, an emergency decision by the Greek Ministry of National Defence, in coordination with the Hellenic National Defence General Staff and Air Force General Staff, provides for the transfer of a Patriot missile battery from Karpathos to Crete to strengthen protection around Souda Bay.
The Souda military installation is one of the largest US bases in the region.
At the same time, Greece continues to maintain a military presence in Cyprus, including the frigate Nikiforos Fokas and four F-16 fighter aircraft.
According to the report, further reinforcement remains under consideration should developments require it, while the possibility of wider European support is also being examined.
Sources within the Greek Defence Ministry, cited by enikos.gr, further suggested that if requested by Sofia, an additional Patriot battery deployment towards Thrace could be considered for Bulgaria, although such a move would require approval by Greece's national security council.
A real but limited threat
Analysts interviewed by the Financial Times said Iran has the capability to threaten military installations in southern and southeastern Europe using medium-range missiles.
However, they noted that the greater the distance, the lower the accuracy and the reduced ability to inflict significant damage.
As a result, they describe the threat as real but limited.
The broader message of the report is that, in the event of a major new US attack, Tehran is no longer considering responses confined to the Middle East, but is examining scenarios that would bring military installations much closer to Europe into the frame, including those in Cyprus.
