Increasingly frequent heatwaves and droughts driven by climate change are expected to worsen income inequality and poverty in Cyprus, with low-income households facing disproportionate economic losses, according to a new study published in the academic journal Global Environmental Change.
The research found that extreme heat and drought have already had a greater impact on poorer households than wealthier ones across Europe over the past two decades. In Cyprus, the effects have been more severe than the European average and are projected to intensify unless significant climate adaptation measures are introduced and global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced.
Poorer households hit hardest
The study found that, across Europe, low-income households have lost 2.7% more income than wealthier households as a result of heatwaves and droughts over the last 20 years.
Researchers said poorer households are more likely to live in areas highly exposed to extreme heat and drought and often lack the financial means to invest in energy-efficient housing or protect their property from climate-related hazards.
Lead author Jessie Schleypen, a PhD candidate at Humboldt University of Berlin, said the combined occurrence of heatwaves and droughts creates stronger economic impacts than either event occurring separately.
“Compound heat and drought events have a larger negative impact than when the two events happen independent of each other,” she said.
“We find evidence of this in the impact on household incomes, where the poorest households, who are faced with unequal costs in obtaining basic services and financial resources to cope and recover, are affected the most. With every income shock, poor households have fewer resources and fewer options to avoid future impacts, thereby turning short-term impacts into long-term effects and pushing them into a poverty trap.”
Cyprus facing above-average risks
According to the study, climate-related income losses in Cyprus have already reached approximately 5% for the overall population and 9% for the poorest households.
Researchers warn that Cyprus is likely to be affected more severely than the European average in the future because rising global temperatures are expected to increase the frequency of combined heat and drought events across the island.
Under a scenario in which global warming is limited to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a target that would require ambitious global emissions reductions, the proportion of Cypriot households at risk of poverty could rise by 10 percentage points, reaching around 25%, compared with 14.9% today.
However, if current global policies remain unchanged and warming reaches 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, the study estimates that the share of households at risk of poverty could rise to 49%, meaning almost half of all households in Cyprus.
Income growth could be wiped out
The findings suggest that income losses linked to climate change could eventually amount to 54% of future income levels in Cyprus, approximately double the projected European average.
Researchers warned that much of the country's future income growth could be offset by the economic consequences of climate change, posing risks to both economic development and social cohesion.
The study argues that limiting global emissions and strengthening climate adaptation measures will be critical in reducing future losses and helping communities cope with increasingly severe weather conditions.
Call for greater climate resilience
The findings underline the need for stronger support measures aimed at improving climate resilience, particularly for vulnerable households.
Professor Theodoros Zachariadis of the Cyprus Institute, who participated in the broader research project, said the results demonstrate the importance of immediate action.
“It is shocking how much climate change can harm the most vulnerable people in our societies if we do not act already now,” he said.
“Policymakers must apply the available knowledge to ensure climate-resilient buildings and neighbourhoods for the most vulnerable households. The costs of such measures are manageable and will protect the Cypriot economy by helping it avoid much higher costs from climate change impacts.”
He added that climate policies can contribute to a more resilient and equitable society while delivering economic and social benefits.
Study and policy recommendations
The research, titled Compound Dry-and-Hot Extremes Exacerbate Income Inequality and Poverty in Europe, was published in Global Environmental Change by Jessie R. Schleypen, Faiz Saeed, Anja Zimmer and Tilman Brück.
The Cyprus Institute has also published a policy brief examining the implications of the findings for Cyprus and outlining recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerability to future climate impacts.
