Ankara is moving ahead with a step that is expected to trigger a new round of tension in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, as it seeks to legally fortify the full scope of its expansionist claims. Through the submission of the new Law on Maritime Jurisdiction Areas, the Turkish government is attempting a strategic shift: turning the Blue Homeland doctrine from political rhetoric into non-negotiable domestic law, raising a barrier against the sovereign rights of Greece and Cyprus.
An extremely worrying escalation
Charalambos Ellinas, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, has sounded the alarm over the apparent legislative entrenchment of Turkish claims. Speaking to Politis, he warned that turning the Blue Homeland doctrine into official Turkish domestic law constitutes an extremely worrying escalation, which is expected to intensify instability and problems in the region.
According to Ellinas, the development marks Ankara’s transition from political rhetoric and maps to the formal institutionalisation of its claims. “Until now, Turkey had not put forward these positions in such an official way, only through statements. Now, through its domestic law, it is formalising them, deepening the problems across the Eastern Mediterranean,” he said, comparing the move to the approach followed in the case of the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum.
Establishing disputes and pressure on the ground
In his analysis, Ellinas stressed that Ankara is seeking to “draw lines” on the ground, which it intends to enforce in practice. In effect, he said, Turkey is laying the foundation for its challenges to the blocks of Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone and is seeking to impose its “sovereignty”, either through military power or through suffocating pressure.
As an example of this strategy, the Atlantic Council senior fellow referred to the recent crisis over the Great Sea Interconnector project, where the appearance of Turkish warships was aimed at obstructing the work. “Turkey is saying clearly: these are my positions and I will enforce them,” he noted.
The energy front and Athens’ stance
Regarding Cyprus, Ellinas recalled Ankara’s continuous efforts to cancel out the sovereign rights of the Republic, with the most recent example being the harassment in Block 3. However, he also noted with interest that Turkey’s own surveys showed that many of the areas it claims may not contain hydrocarbons, proving that Turkish aggression has deeper geopolitical motives.
For Ellinas, the central question remains Greece’s stance. He described Athens’ policy as “excessively cautious, even passive”, at a time when Turkey is escalating its aggression. “This combination is not good,” he warned. “Athens must adopt a more assertive stance, supporting its sovereign rights at both political and legal level, with Nicosia acting accordingly.” Concluding, Ellinas estimated that Turkey’s aggression will intensify in the coming period, underlining that concern in Cyprus and, above all, Greece must be translated into vigilance and the adoption of decisive positions.
Recording Turkey’s red line in the Aegean
Ozay Sendir, editor-in-chief of the pro-government newspaper Milliyet, analysed on CNN Turk the strategic aspects of the bill, which aims to place every activity in the seas that Ankara considers to surround it under Turkish control. According to Sendir, the new law will constitute the official recording of Turkey’s red line in the Aegean. Ankara “legislatively defines its territorial waters at six nautical miles in the Aegean, while maintaining them at 12 nautical miles in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean”.
“The 1995 declaration of the Turkish Grand National Assembly remains our compass,” Sendir said, referring to the resolution by which the Turkish parliament authorised the Turkish government to take all necessary measures, including military measures, in the event that Greece extends its territorial waters from six to 12 nautical miles in the Aegean. He also stressed that Turkey considers the Aegean a “semi-enclosed sea” with a sui generis character, where cooperation is mandatory and unilateral actions are unacceptable.
The bill as a response to Greece
The Turkish journalist directly linked the bill to Greece’s recent initiatives for the creation of marine parks and protected zones. Ankara describes these moves as an “attempt to legitimise arbitrary claims over the exclusive economic zone” and is responding by creating a “strict legal framework”.
From now on, every economic, scientific or environmental activity within the areas Turkey considers to fall under its jurisdiction, including fishing, will require Ankara’s explicit permission. The law also gives the Turkish president the sweeping authority to declare areas as “special-status seas”, creating zones of preventive control even where no exclusive economic zone has been officially delimited.
Jurisdiction beyond borders
One of the most critical aspects analysed by Sendir is the definition of “other maritime areas”. The law is not limited to territorial waters, but claims rights of control on the high seas and in the contiguous zone. There, Turkey declares itself exclusively competent on matters of customs, migration and health, as well as the protection of underwater cultural heritage.
The link with Montreux and international agreements
Sendir was quick to clarify that the new legislation does not seek to overturn the regime of the Straits, which is governed by the Montreux Convention, nor does it affect Ankara’s agreements with Libya and the occupation regime in Cyprus. On the contrary, he said, the law will operate in support of those agreements.
Ankara’s conclusion: “persistent objector”
The analysis by the editor-in-chief of Milliyet concluded that Turkey, while remaining outside the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, is adopting the position of a “persistent objector”. With the new law, Ankara is not merely seeking confrontation with Athens, but is attempting to create a legal fait accompli, so that it can enter any future negotiation having already secured its positions in domestic law.
“We no longer tolerate any fait accompli” is the central conclusion, with Turkey warning that Blue Homeland is now legally shielded.
It should be noted that the timetable for the submission and approval of the bill by the Turkish Grand National Assembly remains unclear for now.
