Political analyst Nasios Orinos says opinion polls conducted more than a year after the last presidential election are already influencing the political landscape ahead of Cyprus' 2028 vote.
Speaking to Politis Radio, Orinos said early polling carries political significance because it can shape voter behaviour and build momentum around potential candidates.
He noted that, beyond long-term political trends, recent events also affect public opinion, pointing to crises including wildfires, water shortages and electricity supply problems.
"These crises have had a negative impact. There has been no assumption of responsibility and, in general, we appeared unprepared," he said.
'Bandwagon effect'
Commenting on a reported DISY opinion poll, Orinos highlighted the so-called "bandwagon effect," where voters are drawn towards candidates perceived as likely winners.
"If we build the image of a winner from now, it has a positive impact on society and voters," he said, arguing that many undecided voters are influenced by perceptions of who has the strongest chance of success.
He added that similar trends had been observed during the presidential elections of 2003, 2013 and 2023.
According to Orinos, polls should not merely identify who is leading but also assess who is most capable of winning the election.
"DISY must look not only at who is ahead, but at who can actually win," he said, adding that voter movements from ELAM and centrist parties could prove decisive.
Focus on DISY dynamics
Discussing developments within DISY, Orinos said party leader Annita Demetriou appears to hold an advantage, but stressed that the final decision rests with party members.
"The party base may choose not to select the party president as its candidate," he said.
He added that if another candidate were chosen, Demetriou would, in theory, be expected to resign from the party leadership.
Possible 2028 scenarios
Oreinos said he considers it a certainty that President Nikos Christodoulides will seek a second term.
Regarding AKEL, he suggested the party is likely to back the candidate with the strongest prospects of reaching the second round.
As for DIKO, he said the party faces three options: supporting Christodoulides, fielding its own candidate, or waiting until the second round to negotiate from a stronger position.
On ELAM, Orinos argued that a presidential bid by party leader Christos Christou could create a dilemma for part of the party's voter base.
