A Second Round, a Second Patrol Boat and Other Calculations

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Christodoulides may need Elam from the first round, Fidias muddies the waters for Averof and the race to succeed Guterres is wide open.

If Disy manages to regroup over the coming months and enters the race for a place in the second round as a serious contender, Nikos Christodoulides will certainly need every last available vote to survive. We are talking about Elam, which saved him in 2023 when it entered the battle of the second round and gave him that crucial 2% to overtake Mavroyiannis, who was ahead right up to the Saturday before election Sunday. The difference this time is that the parties that backed Christodoulides in 2023 have shrunk considerably, so he wants Elam’s vote from the first round, something that makes life difficult for Nikolas Papadopoulos. We consider it unlikely that Nikolas would stand on the same platform as Christodoulides and Elam’s Christou. Diko cannot support, at least officially, a coalition government with Elam.

Fidias plays kingmaker

Fidias has put forward John Christodoulou and Mike Spanos as possible presidential candidates, and the former is said to be considering it. This move complicates things for Averof Neophytou, who has been telling anyone who will listen that Fidias’ party will back him. If John Christodoulou does end up running, Fidias will have shown where his preferences lie.

Asset declarations for all, or just populism?

Do we want asset declarations for everyone, Ms Charalambidou, or are we just being populist? The Alma MP has complained of breaches of the law in the publication of MPs’ asset declarations, asking the meeting of party leaders to examine the matter and assign specific responsibility. What was the problem? In a letter to the House president and the members of the leaders’ meeting, she argued that personal data of spouses and minor children had been published in breach of the relevant legal provisions. This is something we have never understood. So an MP declares whatever he or she likes, puts everything else in the spouse’s name, and nothing happens? Meanwhile, the champion of transparency recently tabled, together with Odysseas, a proposal on asset declarations for newspaper publishers and editors, and, between us, she was right to do so, because the insinuations have to stop. Insinuations that Alma’s well-known mouthpiece, Ms Tsikkini, made sure to escalate, leaving hints in a post about corrupt media and journalists. Before we go that far, of course, politicians’ asset declarations should extend to their spouses and children, and to the Cayman Islands and the Seychelles.

Stefanou on the table

In the discussions within Akel, the name of general secretary Stefanos Stefanou is not being ruled out, for three reasons. First, because according to the polls he would comfortably make it through the first round of the presidential elections. Second, because he rallies the party more than anyone else. And third, because he satisfies those who want the party to follow a clear left-wing line on every issue. The problem, some party officials say, is that Stefanou would struggle to compete for victory on equal terms in the second round if he ran as Akel’s left-wing candidate. What he can secure, according to supporters of the clear line, is a dignified showing. If, of course, Alma, Edek, Volt, the Ecologists and others could stand beside him, it could become a battle for the presidency on equal terms.

Who comes after Guterres?

The manoeuvring over who will succeed António Guterres as UN secretary-general is enormous. So far, nine people have officially expressed interest, three of whom have withdrawn, leaving six in the race, although experts write off every one of them, since none has the vote of the United States. Who are the six? Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador. Very recently, Lana Zaki Nusseibeh of the United Arab Emirates entered the race, while the names of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Turkish diplomat Feridun Sinirlioğlu are under discussion. These last three are not ruled out by the United States, Russia or China, though each carries serious drawbacks. Nusseibeh is of Palestinian descent, so objections from Israel are possible. Sinirlioğlu, as a Turk, could also face objections from Israel and Cyprus, and very probably from Greece. A more neutral case is that of Tokayev, whose only negative is his alliance with Putin. All three share one further drawback, in that they bypass the tradition under which it is Latin America’s turn to provide the secretary-general. According to diplomatic sources, Latin American countries could raise the issue, as could Africa, whose turn comes next, even sabotaging the election process. In that case, a very interesting candidacy could slip through, that of María Ángela Holguín, as a compromise choice from Latin America.

Edek’s prodigals

Demetris Papadakis, Kostis Efstathiou and other figures expelled in previous years will be at Edek’s statutory congress on Sunday, through which Sofia Christodoulou Makri is trying to signal a new beginning for the party, while 11 members of the Political Bureau insist the process is void. My dear, we are not at all sure this return will help Edek. Our prediction is that these figures are coming back to drive out Sizopoulos, and if they fail, they will make a mess of the party all over again.

Nothing new from Anastasiades

Between us, what did Anastasiades say that was new about an understanding between Christodoulides and Disy in the second round? We have the impression that, however much some refuse to admit it, this has already been agreed at leadership level. On the other hand, of course, there are also the voters, who have their own view and are perfectly capable of making their own decisions.

A second Sa’ar for the navy

Cyprus is acquiring a second warship. It is an Israeli offshore patrol vessel (OPV) of the Sa’ar 62 class, built by Israel Shipyards, the same model as the Andreas Ioannides, which has been serving in the National Guard Navy since 2018. It is a military vessel, though neither a frigate nor a corvette, being designed mainly for the surveillance and protection of maritime areas. With the addition of guided missiles and modern sensors, it can gain significantly greater capacity to counter threats, without automatically becoming a frigate-class warship. Is the purchase worth the €150 million it requires? Cyprus is not acquiring a new class of major warship but a second Sa’ar 62, which, together with the upgrade of the Ioannides, will strengthen the National Guard’s patrol and maritime surveillance capabilities.