The battle of the parliamentary elections is extremely close due to the large percentage of undecided voters and the low levels of voter consolidation recorded by several parties in the polls. Quite a few political forces believe that their real percentages will be reflected at the ballot box, essentially questioning the results of opinion surveys. Nevertheless, polls do provide certain estimates of the electoral outcome and an indication of voter preferences, even if only as a snapshot in time.
ALMA and Direct Democracy Cyprus appear to be comfortably securing entry into Parliament and are even competing for a significant position in the new party landscape, while there are at least four smaller parties with good chances, such as Volt, EDEK, DEPA, and the Ecologists’ Movement (Greens).
ALMA
The ALMA Movement, led by Odysseas Michaelides, is fighting for fourth place, with the most recent polls showing voting intention (without redistribution) between 6.4% and 9.5%. A poll by RAI Consultants for Alpha Cyprus indicated that ALMA would secure 6 parliamentary seats, while a Pulse Market Research poll for Omega presented scenarios of up to 8 seats.
Within the movement, however, there is also an optimistic scenario of 9 seats if a significant portion of undecided voters ultimately chooses ALMA. Party estimates suggest two seats in Nicosia, one or two in Limassol, and one seat in each of the remaining districts except Kyrenia.
In Alpha Cyprus’ latest poll, candidate preference cards were presented for several parties. For ALMA, the poll showed Odysseas Michaelides and Irene Charalambidou as favorites in Nicosia. In Limassol, the leading candidates are Michalis Paraskevas and Miltos Papadopoulos. A party official told “P” that these indications “sound reasonable” and emphasized that the party does not conduct internal polling.
Of the six candidates in Larnaca, two appear to have an advantage due to their strong media presence: communications secretary Panagiotis Evangelidis and international relations expert Petros Zarouna. One of the two will be elected if ALMA wins a seat in the city.
In Famagusta, calculations are difficult since six candidacies have been finalized and five more will be announced soon. There is also no clear picture in Paphos, with a party official noting that each candidate has their own distinct profile.
Direct Democracy
The party of MEP Fidias Panayiotou is also competing for fourth place, with recent measurements showing it reaching around 7.3%. Alpha Cyprus’ recent poll showed it securing 7 seats, while Omega scenarios ranged from 4 to 7 seats.
The Alpha poll also highlighted leading candidates in three districts. In Nicosia, the ranking was: Fidias Panayiotou, Minas Giorgas, Yiannis Laouris, Marina Georgiou, Ioannis Damianou, and Nikos Louka (“loukanikos”). In Limassol, Dimitris Souglis ranked first, followed by Kostakis Antoniou and Yiannis Tsitsis. In Famagusta, the leading candidates were vice-president Diana Constantinidou, Eleni Menelaou, and Dimitris Patsias.
A party official told Politis that Direct Democracy does not conduct internal polls and does not trust them. The party expects to exceed 10% and secure at least 7 seats: three in Nicosia, two in Limassol, and two in Famagusta, while not ruling out one seat each in Larnaca and Paphos.
The party also disputes the poll rankings of candidates. According to a party source, internal electronic elections produced different results in Nicosia, with Yiannis Laouris ranking second in preference votes, Nikolas Louka third, and Elena Mitella fourth.
In Limassol, internal rankings align with the Alpha poll, while in Famagusta only Dimitris Patsias alters the order. In Paphos, Dimitris Baros ranked first internally, in Kyrenia Konstantinos Kyprianou, and in Larnaca Vasileios Thrasyvoulou.
Volt
Volt Cyprus reached 3.6% in the Alpha Cyprus poll, securing entry into Parliament with three seats. In Omega’s poll, it stood at 3.5%, with scenarios ranging from zero to three seats.
According to Alpha’s poll, seven leading candidates emerged in Nicosia: Alexandra Attalidou, Makarios Drousiotis, Sofia Vasileiou, Andromachi Sofokleous, followed by Alexandros Apostolidis, Rodoula Dimitriadou, and Effie Xanthou.
A party official expressed strong doubts about these rankings due to the small sample size, estimating that Volt has 4–5 candidates capable of receiving around 2,000 votes each. An optimistic scenario places the party between 4% and 5%, which could yield two seats in Nicosia, one in Famagusta, and one in Limassol.
Volt is said to have strong support in Famagusta due to the previous presence of the “Famagusta – For Cyprus” party, while Limassol’s size offers significant vote potential.
Several candidates are considered particularly strong in Nicosia, including Alexandra Attalidou, Makarios Drousiotis, Andromachi Sofokleous, Charilaos Velaris, Costas Costa, and Effie Xanthou. In Famagusta, Pieros Karoullas, Giota Avxentiou, and Artemios Michael are seen as influential. In Limassol, Andreas Soutzis, Panos Parras, Penelope Vaskes Hatzilyra, and Fryni Onoufriou-Christodoulou stand out. Michalis Kalopaidis shows strength in Larnaca, and Natasha Ioannou in Kyrenia. There is no clear favorite in Paphos.
EDEK
EDEK considers its entry into Parliament certain, with optimism based on preliminary results of an internal poll of about 1,300 people, showing support between 4.2% and 4.8%.
A party source stated this would translate into three seats: one each in Nicosia, Limassol, and Paphos, with a loss in Larnaca. The party received 24,024 votes in 2021 and expects around 18,000 this time. In Nicosia, it expects a drop from about 9,000 votes to around 5,600.
Another official noted that none of the current MPs are running again, creating competition that could boost mobilization and votes.
Internal polling also suggests leading candidates: in Nicosia, deputy leader Morphakis Solomonides leads (62%), followed by Marios Hannides (43%), Takis Christodoulou (42%), Sofia Christodoulou (25%), and Charalambos Christodoulou (24%).
In Limassol, a very small sample suggests Lysandros Lysandrou leads, followed by Adonis Constantinou and Paris Pittakaras. In Paphos, Vassos Demetriou leads, followed by Vasilis Theodorou.
DEPA
DEPA believes polls do not reflect reality and expresses optimism for over 5%. A party official pointed to strong candidate lists and its control of key ministries, including Defense (Vasilis Palmas) and Labor (Marinos Mousiouttas), as well as experienced figures like Christos Patsalides and Kyriakos Kenevezos.
In Nicosia, strong candidates are seen as MPs Alekos Tryfonides and Giorgos Penintaex, vice-president Marinos Cleanthous, and Nestoras Nestoros.
In Limassol, the absence of party leader Marios Karoyian from the race is expected to boost local candidates. Names mentioned include Marios Stylianou, Ioannis Tsappas, and Loizos Michael.
In Famagusta, Sergis Sergiou, Andreas Vrachimis, and Michalis Zintilis show strength. In Larnaca, Giorgos Koumas and Despina Papadopoulou stand out. In Paphos, Andreas Kesouris, Euclidis Ambrosiadis, and Phanos Chrysantthou are notable. In Kyrenia, Michalis Skordis is expected to perform strongly.
Greens
The Ecologists’ Movement – Citizens’ Cooperation has conducted two large internal polls and plans another in early May. The latest showed 2.9%, rising to 3.4% after redistribution.
A party source noted 55% voter consolidation and said the poll preceded cooperation with the Animal Party, which had received 1% (3,593 votes) in 2021. A further alliance with the Social Ecology Movement, led by Athos Agapitios, is expected to boost support. “50% of candidates,” the source added, “are affiliated figures, indicating a hidden vote that will emerge at the ballot box.”
The party aims to match its 2021 result (4.41%). An optimistic scenario gives three seats (two in Nicosia, one in Limassol), while a result just above 3.6% would likely yield two seats.
Internal polling suggests leading candidates in Nicosia include Andreas Theofanous, Andreas Christou, Oz Karahan, Virginia Christou, Elena Lymbouri, Maria Kola, Alexia Sakadaki, and Adonis Yiangou.
In Limassol, Stavros Papadouris, Zenonas Nicolaides, Maria Diamantidou, Monica Pieridou, and Akis Ioannidis stand out. In Famagusta, Kyriakos Kyriakou and Michalis Paraschos show strong potential.
This article was originally published in the Politis Sunday Edition.