Cyprus’ pre-election campaign has been thrown into disarray following the emergence of the “Sandy” case, which erupted on 30 March and has since dominated the political agenda. The controversy has upended party messaging just three weeks before the parliamentary elections on 24 May and is widely credited with boosting smaller political forces, particularly Volt and its candidate Makarios Drousiotis, who brought the case to public attention via social media.
Fragmented race and uncertain voter behaviour
Despite numerous polls showing broadly similar snapshots of party support, uncertainty is growing over key factors such as hidden voting patterns, particularly for parties including ELAM, ALMA and the Direct Democracy movement associated with Fidias Panayiotou. Analysts also point to a significant bloc of undecided voters whose final choices could prove decisive.
Concerns are also being raised about whether polling samples accurately capture shifting voter sentiment in a highly fluid political environment.
Rise of populist and protest narratives
The campaign has also been shaped by increasingly polarised political messaging. ELAM has promoted a hardline agenda on the Cyprus issue and migration, alongside populist economic positions and a focus on exposing scandals and criticising institutions, with the notable exception of the Audit Office during the tenure of former official Odysseas Michaelides.
Meanwhile, the Direct Democracy movement has drawn attention through its unconventional campaign style and strong social media presence, further disrupting traditional party dynamics.
Traditional parties under pressure
Established political forces are reportedly struggling to adapt to the new environment, with criticism that they remain anchored in outdated campaign methods, messaging strategies and organisational structures.
There is growing concern among party insiders that newer political movements are reshaping voter expectations faster than traditional parties can respond.
Seat distribution scenarios
According to recent polling trends and analysis by electoral expert Nasios Orei, at least six parties are expected to enter the House of Representatives following the May elections, with the possibility of more breaking through and entering parliament for the first time.
The distribution of seats will depend both on each party’s vote share and on the proportion of votes that fall below the parliamentary threshold, which are effectively redistributed among parties that enter parliament.
Scenario one: Six-party parliament
In a simplified projection, if six parties enter parliament with the following vote shares — DISY (16.5%), AKEL (16.5%), ELAM (10%), ALMA (10%), Direct Democracy (9%) and DIKO (9%) — they collectively account for 71% of the vote, leaving 29% outside parliament.
Under this scenario, DISY and AKEL would secure around 13 seats each, ELAM and ALMA around eight seats each, and DIKO alongside Direct Democracy around seven seats each, though analysts stress these figures would likely fluctuate within ranges depending on surplus vote transfers during seat allocation.
Scenario two: Entry of additional parties
If a seventh party, such as Volt with around 5%, enters parliament, it could secure approximately three to four seats. These would be redistributed from existing parties, depending on vote surpluses and allocation mechanics.
Should further parties break through, they would similarly draw seats away from established parties. Even a party entering with around 3.6% could secure two seats, while in certain conditions a party below the national threshold could still gain a seat via constituency-level performance.
DISY: internal divisions and leadership challenges
The Democratic Rally (DISY), which secured 27.77% in the 2021 elections, has experienced significant internal turbulence since its defeat in the presidential race and the subsequent leadership changes that saw Annita Demetriou become party leader.
The party continues to face criticism over its handling of corruption scandals, including the “golden passports” controversy, and remains divided over its relationship with the current government and its broader political positioning.
Despite internal tensions, DISY aims to retain its electoral lead, with a realistic target of just over 23% under current conditions.
AKEL: focus on social issues and generational change
AKEL, which won 22.34% in 2021, is targeting a similar result under current leader Stefanos Stefanou. The party has focused its campaign on socio-economic issues such as inflation, housing and energy policy, while avoiding contentious debates on Cyprus reunification and migration where possible.
However, AKEL faces challenges linked to the departure of key figures due to term limits, including Irene Charalambidou, Costas Costa and Andreas Kafkalias, which is expected to impact its parliamentary representation.
DIKO: expected losses and internal tension
The Democratic Party (DIKO), which secured 11.29% in 2021, is currently polling significantly lower, raising expectations of seat losses and a reduced role in parliament.
Internal competition is intensifying among candidates, with concerns that leading figures such as Christiana Erotokritou or Chrysis Pantelides could lose their seats depending on final results in Nicosia.
The party is also facing growing internal debate over leadership direction and policy positioning ahead of the election.
ELAM: growth tempered by new challengers
ELAM is expected to increase its parliamentary representation beyond its current three seats, though analysts suggest its growth may be limited by the emergence of new parties such as ALMA and Direct Democracy.
The party is also experiencing internal tensions over its evolving public image, including debates over its positioning as a protest movement versus its increasing institutional integration.
Concerns have also emerged over candidate selection disputes and internal discipline issues during the campaign.
A highly fragmented parliamentary landscape
Overall, the election is shaping up to produce a fragmented parliament, with at least six parties expected to enter and potentially more breaking through.
The allocation of seats will depend heavily on how many votes fall outside parliament and how surplus votes are redistributed during the complex proportional system.
With traditional parties under pressure and new movements gaining traction, analysts describe the race as one of the most unpredictable in recent Cypriot political history.
This article was originally published on the Greek-language Politis website.