The new circumstances arising in the Cyprus problem following the victory of Tufan Erhürman in the “presidential election” of the Turkish-Cypriot community are now being evaluated by Nicosia. The defeat of Ersin Tatar, who stood as the greatest obstacle to the effort to restart talks, has generated cautious optimism of a fresh dynamic on the Cyprus issue. Last Wednesday President Christodoulides described Erhürman’s victory as a “positive development” in remarks to Euronews. However, on Friday the new Turkish-Cypriot leader set a hard precondition for the resumption of negotiations, stating that the Turkish-Cypriot side will not enter into talks unless a timetable is established. This comment caused a degree of embarrassment for the Christodoulides government, which chose not to issue any public statement in order to avoid being held responsible for any premature reversal of the positive atmosphere that is beginning to take shape.
There is also the mystery that is Turkey, which occupies the negotiating team of the President of the Republic and for which Nicosia is conducting contingency planning for the next steps. At least that is what diplomatic sources suggested to P, noting that there are ways to persuade Turkey to change its stance on the Cyprus problem, citing Ankara’s European ambitions and Cyprus’s role as a member state, soon to assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union.
On standby
The Greek-Cypriot side remains on standby, aware that in the period ahead Tufan Erhürman will focus on selecting his collaborators and on his first trip to Turkey. Nicosia estimates that the first meeting of the two leaders will take place in early November and may possibly have a social character. It will occur after the personal envoy of the UN Secretary-General, Maria Angela Olguín, visits the island. A diplomatic source told P that the two sides will need to move on to substantive issues, because Ms Olguín is tasked with organising the next expanded informal meeting, expected in December.
The optimistic scenario
Aside from the election of Tufan Erhürman who is in favour of a federal solution, Nicosia has no other positive indicators for the future, nor does it expect Ankara to publicly declare a change of course on the Cyprus issue. Nonetheless, it is preparing to act within the framework of an optimistic scenario. As a diplomatic source told Politis, there is the possibility that Turkey may quietly change its stance at least at a practical level and allow matters to progress on their own. According to the good scenario of the Greek-Cypriot side, Turkey would take a step back and allow events to unfold in a way that lets Tufan Erhürman handle the matter. Also, Nicosia hopes that UN Secretary-General António Guterres will reintroduce the proposal to restart talks, thereby putting the Turkish-Cypriot side and Turkey in a difficult position.
Four points
However, Nicosia fears that Tufan Erhürman may insist from the outset on the four conditions for resuming talks that he laid out during the election campaign: namely, prior acceptance of political equality, a fixed timetable for negotiations, no return to the status quo if talks collapse, and no reopening of previously closed topics.
The third point is not negative for Nicosia, given that President Christodoulides himself has declared that the Greek-Cypriot side wishes talks to resume from where they left off in Crans-Montana. The negotiating team is, however, prepared for this scenario and considers that perhaps Tufan Erhürman will insist on these conditions to buy time in order to prepare more thoroughly. After all, the new Turkish-Cypriot leader is aware that the Republic of Cyprus will assume the EU Council presidency in the first half of 2026, and therefore the timeframe is not suited for negotiations.
Express process
Nicosia signals that discussions on confidence-building measures, aimed at enhancing cooperation and creating a positive climate cannot replace negotiations, and the goal is the resumption of dialogue on substantive issues. Consequently, it hopes that it will not be necessary to spend long discussing Erhürman’s four points and is betting on the optimistic scenario of a restart of talks through an express process.
A diplomatic source emphasised that there are ways to avoid the four conditions without it appearing that the Turkish-Cypriot leader has “backtracked”, saying that if the process is allowed to evolve smoothly, to begin a new course from where it left off in Crans-Montana, then perhaps no joint declaration by the two leaders reaffirming their commitment to the agreed basis of a solution will even be necessary. Of course, all of this presupposes a climate of trust and some positive moves by the Greek-Cypriot side, even if unilateral. The same source said that Nicosia realises that it must bolster the positive development created by Tufan Erhürman’s victory in the “presidential election” and that the right messages must be sent in all directions.
Initiatives
A government source told Politis that in the coming days the Greek-Cypriot side will specify the initiatives it will undertake if all goes smoothly. They said that the unilateral measures already taken by the Christodoulides government for the Turkish-Cypriots will need to be enhanced and new measures announced in this direction. They did not rule out the possibility that the Greek-Cypriot side may proceed with unilateral steps such as opening new checkpoints.
Turkey
The same source said that Nicosia is considering various scenarios and policies it might apply in order to push Turkey towards a new line on the Cyprus issue. It is focusing primarily on EU–Turkey relations and the benefits Ankara could gain from the European Union. The Greek-Cypriot side is optimistic that if it facilitates Turkey’s participation in European defence programmes such as SAFE and does not stand in the way of Turkish aspirations such as the upgrading of the customs union, then Ankara will have an interest in showing a constructive attitude on the Cyprus issue. It also factors in that Cyprus will assume the EU Council presidency in the first half of 2026, which will allow it to make concrete moves towards Turkey, exerting greater influence in shaping the European agenda. However, it has no intention of granting Turkey concessions if talks do not resume.
Usurpation, Israel and Turkey’s soft underbelly
In the previous period Nicosia applied tough measures to pressure Ersin Tatar who persisted in an inflexible manner in a two-state solution and recognition of sovereign equality for the Turkish-Cypriots. It issued arrest warrants for businesspeople usurping Greek-Cypriot properties in the occupied territories. Indeed, on Friday for the first time a penalty was imposed on a natural person for usurpation. These measures weakened Ersin Tatar and facilitated Tufan Erhürman’s victory, as they had caused strong concern in the Turkish-Cypriot community about the negative economic consequences and serious pushback from business circles. It was a policy that revealed the dead-end to which Tatar’s approach was leading.
The question now is what the Christodoulides government will do moving forward on this issue. If the Republic of Cyprus continues to take tough measures then the dynamic created by Tufan Erhürman’s election will be placed at risk. Beyond the need for constructive domestic policies, the Christodoulides government is called upon to manage foreign-policy issues such as relations with Israel. In recent days correspondents in Turkey reported that Ankara is watching with concern the tightening of defence relations between Nicosia and Tel Aviv.
Possibly the prevention of this trajectory is Ankara’s greatest incentive to change its stance on the Cyprus issue, since for Turkey Cyprus is primarily a matter of national security and the solution could significantly reduce Israel’s influence on the island, the so-called “soft underbelly” of Turkey. Nicosia - because of the Cyprus problem - is continuously seeking new protectors, and Turkey certainly knows this and is clearly aware that a settlement of the problem would also eliminate the Republic of Cyprus’s need for foreign protection.