Three Scenarios For The Upcoming Parliamentary Elections in May

 

• The dominant factor today is fluidity, which is no longer a temporary phenomenon - it is the new… status quo.
• In the most likely scenario for the 2026 parliamentary elections, DISY and AKEL are neck-and-neck and remain weak parties, ELAM is the third party, Odysseas plays the role of kingmaker, Feidias has a noteworthy parliamentary group, Volt barely enters Parliament, and the centre suffers a significant contraction.
• DISY, still lacking unity, is fighting for first place but feels AKEL breathing down its neck; AKEL, with considerably stronger consolidation, dreams of taking first place.
• Party “alignment” no longer automatically produces party “behaviour,” and voters now exhibit weak party loyalty but strong political opinion.
• Society is in a state of “negative mood/direction,” and the three main conclusions of the polls are disaffiliation, voter movement, and anti-establishment voting.
• Four major trends will shape the elections: distrust towards parties and institutions; the consolidation battle among the major parties and the survival struggle of the “small” parties; Odysseas and Feidias vying to act as kingmakers; the next Parliament will be the most fragmented since 1974.

kateliadi@gmail.com

We are approximately six months away from the parliamentary elections, scheduled for 24 May 2026, and the political landscape in Cyprus appears incoherent and unstable compared with the traditional, familiar pre-election environment of previous contests. The election season is already beginning to take shape: parties are gradually completing their candidate lists and formulating strategies, while the electorate - more demanding and critical than ever -  is watching and commenting around the clock on social media on the desperate efforts of traditional parties to persuade (and retain) their voters, even as new parties are introduced to the public and reveal themselves. All this occurs in an environment of distrust, contestation, social challenges, political upheaval, and geopolitical turbulence. Voters are more critical, more exhausted, and at the same time more willing than ever to try something different. The new electoral reality is defined by social insecurity, political diffusion, and voter mobility. For this reason, the dominant factor is fluidity, which is no longer a temporary phenomenon. It is the new status quo.

Two polls

Last week, two major polls were released, revealing the current state of the political system and voter behaviour. One was conducted by MRC Cypronetwork Ltd for CyBC and the other by IMR for Reporter. The Cypronetwork survey (with a higher proportion of undecided voters), which focused on political culture and electoral behaviour, was conducted via telephone interviews from 20 October to 3 November 2025, with a sample of 1,418 respondents, a 95% confidence interval, and a margin of error of ±2.9%. The IMR survey was also conducted by telephone between 3 and 10 November 2025, with a sample of 1,000 respondents, a 95% confidence interval, and a margin of error of ±3.1%.

The summary

Both polls reveal significant realignments of political forces, confirming trends already visible in the 2024 European elections and various 2025 surveys, and generally indicate the following:

1. DISY, still with low consolidation, is fighting for first place and feels AKEL on its heels, although AKEL enjoys stronger consolidation. Losses continue towards ELAM, and now DISY also loses voters to ALMA (Odysseas Michaelides) and Direct Democracy (Feidias Panayiotou). DISY maintains a slim lead but no longer wields influence of the old type. The party president and House Speaker, Annita Demetriou, is seeing a decline in her popularity ratings.

2. AKEL eyes first place but lacks the momentum for a counterattack. It struggles to create a strong alternative governance trend, despite clearly being in opposition in an era rife with issues - high prices, labour concerns, energy, housing, the Cyprus problem - that should play to the left’s advantage. AKEL is also losing voters to ALMA and Direct Democracy. Party secretary-general Stefanos Stefanou is recording a decline in his approval ratings both within and outside the party. The key question for both DISY and AKEL is whether first place has value if accompanied by social contraction and historically low vote shares.

3. ELAM, despite entering the sphere of systemic parties, continues to attract disenchanted far-right voters from DISY and other right-wing forces, and even some from AKEL (due to economic issues, the Cyprus problem, migration, and the “woke” agenda). ELAM is consolidating as the third party, taking over the kingmaker role from DIKO. It is no longer a marginal player in Cypriot politics but rather a hidden card and a secret pillar of support for the President. Long-standing leader Christos Christou enjoys high approval within the party.

4. ALMA is vying for fourth place, currently threatened primarily by Direct Democracy. Its share has declined slightly, but it remains the party with the widest horizontal penetration across the electorate. Notably, ALMA is gaining 14% from DIKO, 8% from AKEL, 5% from DISY, and 7% from ELAM. Odysseas Michaelides’ personal image is the most positive among all party leaders (IMR/Reporter).

5. DIKO is on high alert. With low consolidation, it is fighting to avoid its biggest percentage drop in history. Falling below 7.2% would be disastrous, as it would cost the party many seats due to the electoral system during the 2nd and 3rd seat allocations.

6. Direct Democracy, the new political creation of Feidias Panayiotou, has entered the party landscape strongly, taking sixth place with a clear political presence and upward trajectory. Interestingly: (a) Panayiotou’s personal image is very negative, (b) the party draws votes from undecided voters, abstention, blank/invalid ballots, and all political spaces, (c) it represents purely anti-establishment voting rather than an organised political programme. It is a clear indicator of political fluidity and the crisis of representation affecting traditional parties.

7. Among the so-called small parties, Volt, the Greens, EDEK, and DIIPA are fighting for both survival and relevance. Volt seems poised to enter Parliament, the Greens are declining, EDEK is on the verge of disappearing, and DIPA is virtually invisible, with Marios Garoyian having the most negative leader's image. The number of parties passing the 3.6% threshold will influence parliamentary seat distribution, future coalitions, and the overall political system after the elections.

How Cypriots Will Vote in 2026

According to opinion polls, traditional party voting is fading, while the correctness of political positioning remains an important criterion (voting for a party with the “right” stance), despite widespread disillusionment with the party system. Political substance has not disappeared and continues to matter. Noteworthy is the increasing focus on individual candidates—their image, persona, and style. Personalised politics is gaining ground, and the next Parliament could be the most candidate-centred of the past decades.

Although few openly say they will cast a protest vote, polling data suggests otherwise, showing a rise in support for parties such as ELAM, ALMA, and Direct Democracy. A significant proportion of voters feel closer to a particular party, but this does not translate into stable party loyalty. This indicates that party “alignment” does not automatically produce party “behaviour.” Voters now appear more selective, with weak party allegiance but strong political opinions.

The Big Picture

Uncertainty, disengagement, and anger are spreading across the party spectrum, creating a new, fragmented party system that is more unpredictable and unstable than ever. Undoubtedly, Cyprus is entering a new political era. Polling data paints a picture of weakening party identification, unprecedented voter movement in modern Cypriot political history, structural - not occasional - discontent, a shrinking and reshaping “centre,” and fertile ground for new political formations in a society seeking hope, solutions, alternative options, or simply an outlet for frustration.

In a society undergoing rapid economic, social, and geopolitical changes, the May 2026 parliamentary elections are unlikely to be merely a contest between parties. They will be the first major tectonic test of a new political cycle, in which the traditional two-party system, the centrist bloc, and post-1974 system stability face a society changing faster than its politicians can track. One certainty is that the next Parliament will bear little resemblance to any previous one. Today, parties manage to reach agreements, more or less, at the last moment. Tomorrow, weakened traditional parties will have to find common ground with ALMA led by Odysseas Michaelides and Direct Democracy led by Phidias Panayiotou—i.e., with the “unconventional,” “non-conformist,” “uneducated,” “young,” “marginal,” “absurd,” TikTok generation… All while ELAM could emerge as a strong bloc with a regulatory role in Parliament, potentially even in government.

From Negativity to Chaos

Society is in a state of “negative mood/direction.” Poll findings are revealing: the country is “going the wrong way,” the post-Christodoulides trend reversal is fading, and there is a growing wave of frustration over inflation, cost of living, corruption, institutional crisis, credibility, the Cyprus issue, and more. Cypriots have moved from economic anxiety to multidimensional dissatisfaction, where living standards, state reliability, and security coexist as key priorities.

Polls highlight three major trends: disintegration, voter movement, and anti-system voting. Currently, traditional parties struggle to consolidate support, movement towards new parties is historic in scale, and anti-system voting is the hidden force of the elections. Combining the research, four main trends emerge:

1. Widespread distrust of parties and institutions accelerates political reshuffling.

2. Large parties will fight to consolidate their base, while smaller parties fight for survival.

3. New parties, particularly ALMA and Direct Democracy, aim to influence the final outcome.

4. The next Parliament will be the most fragmented (“chaotic”) since 1974.

Three Scenarios

With the help of an electoral analyst who wishes to remain anonymous, three possible outcomes for May 2026, based on current party geography and recent polls, are as follows (56 seats, 3.6% electoral threshold). Note: percentages do not sum to 100% due to smaller parties, undecided voters, blank/invalid votes, and abstentions. Seat totals for scenarios are approximate, with some +/- adjustments for political assessment before mathematical normalisation.

Scenario 1 – Conservative: Stabilisation of traditional parties, with major parties limiting losses and increasing consolidation.

Estimated results:

• DISY 21% (15 seats)

• AKEL 20% (14 seats)

• ELAM 11% (6 seats)

• DIKO 9% (5 seats)

• ALMA 8% (5 seats)

• Direct Democracy 4% (2 seats)

• EDEK 3.6+% (2 seats)

• Green Party 3.6+% (2 seats)

• Volt 2% (0 seats)

• DIPA 1% (0 seats)

Politically, this scenario suggests a return to moderate fragmentation, a retreat of smaller parties, with ALMA and Direct Democracy having a limited parliamentary presence.

Scenario 2 – Baseline (Most Likely): Today’s pattern largely remains, with minor differences on election day.

Estimated results:

• DISY 18.5% (13 seats)

• AKEL 18% (13 seats)

• ELAM 13% (7 seats)

• ALMA 10% (6 seats)

• DIKO 7% (4 seats)

• Direct Democracy 6% (3 seats)

• Volt 3.6+% (2 seats)

• Green Party 3.6+% (2 seats)

• EDEK 3.6+% (1 seat)

• Hunters’ Movement 1.5% (0 seats)

• DIPA 1% (0 seats)

Politically, this scenario implies a tie between DISY and AKEL, with both remaining weak. ELAM becomes a firmly established third party. ALMA will act as kingmaker, Direct Democracy enters Parliament with a significant presence, Volt just crosses the threshold, and the so-called centre shrinks historically.

Scenario 3 – Dynamic: High fluidity favouring new parties, rupture with the “old,” major upheaval, high voter mobility, and growth of anti-system votes.

Estimated results:

• DISY 17% (12 seats)

• AKEL 16% (11 seats)

• ELAM 14% (8 seats)

• Direct Democracy 14% (8 seats)

• ALMA 6–8% (up to 4 seats)

• DIKO 6% (3 seats)

• Volt 4% (3 seats)

• Green Party 3.6+% (2 seats)

• EDEK 3.6+% (1 seat)

• Hunters’ Movement 3.6+% (1 seat)

• DIPA 1% (0 seats)

Politically, this would be a “nightmare” for the traditional system. If the campaign period proves chaotic and beyond the control of the old parties, the traditional model could collapse. Parliament would become a 7–9 party body, more fragmented than ever. New parties (ALMA, Direct Democracy, Volt) would collectively exceed 25%, while DISY and AKEL together fall below 30% - a historic first - and governance would become significantly more difficult.