Fears that the US-Iran ceasefire may not hold intensified on Monday after American forces seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach a naval blockade, and Tehran responded by threatening retaliation and refusing to return to the negotiating table.
US Central Command said its forces fired on the Iranian-flagged vessel in the north Arabian Sea on Sunday after a six-hour standoff, disabling its engines before US marines rappelled from helicopters onto the ship. Iran's military said the vessel had been travelling from China. "We have full custody of their ship, and are seeing what's on board!" President Donald Trump wrote on social media.
Iran's military warned that its armed forces "will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the US military," according to state media. Iranian state media also reported that Tehran had rejected a new round of peace talks, citing the ongoing blockade, what it described as threatening rhetoric, and Washington's shifting positions and excessive demands. Iran's First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said on social media: "One cannot restrict Iran's oil exports while expecting free security for others. The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone."
Markets rattled
Oil prices jumped more than 5% and stock markets wobbled as traders grew concerned the ceasefire would collapse and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would remain severely restricted. The strait typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply, and its de facto closure since the war began on 28 February has created what analysts have described as the most severe shock to global energy supplies in history.
Talks in doubt as deadline nears
The two-week ceasefire is due to expire on Tuesday, and it remains unclear whether a second round of negotiations will take place. Trump said his envoys would arrive in Islamabad on Monday evening, though he gave conflicting signals on who would lead the delegation. A White House official told Reuters the team would be headed by Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round of talks, and would also include envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump subsequently told US media that Vance would not attend.
Pakistan, which has served as the main mediator, appeared to be preparing for the talks regardless. Two US military cargo planes landed at an air base on Sunday carrying security equipment, and municipal authorities in Islamabad halted public transport and restricted traffic near the Serena Hotel, where last week's negotiations were held.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who has led Tehran's delegation, said the two sides had made progress but remained far apart on nuclear issues and the status of the strait. European allies, repeatedly criticised by Trump for not supporting his war effort, have expressed concern that Washington is pushing for a swift, superficial agreement that would leave the most complex technical issues unresolved for months or years.
The wider toll
Now in its eighth week, the conflict has killed thousands of people through US-Israeli strikes on Iran and an Israeli invasion of Lebanon that has run in parallel since the war began. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks against Israeli targets and Arab countries hosting US military bases. On Sunday, Iran executed two men convicted of cooperating with Israel's Mossad intelligence service and planning attacks inside the country, according to the judiciary's news outlet Mizan.
Source: Reuters