Europe is sweltering through an extraordinary heatwave for late May, with temperatures smashing records across western Europe at a time of year when few would expect them. For Cyprus, watching from the Eastern Mediterranean, the event is not a distant spectacle. It is a preview.
Much of western Europe is facing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above normal this week, as the continent grapples with a powerful heat dome, a persistent high-pressure system that acts like a lid on a pot, trapping hot air and pushing it downward. France has already broken its May temperature record, with temperatures peaking in the low 30s each day since last Thursday, and higher still to come, while parts of the southwest are expected to reach 37 to 38 degrees Celsius. In Britain, Kew Gardens in west London recorded 34.8 degrees Celsius on 25 May, exceeding the previous May record by two degrees, a record that was then broken again the following day. Portugal has reached 40 degrees Celsius, and Belgium is also expected to record record-breaking May temperatures before the end of the month.
In France, seven deaths have been directly or indirectly linked to the heat since Saturday, including at least five drownings. In Britain, three teenagers drowned in separate incidents. Health authorities across the continent have issued warnings, with Britain's health security agency placing the majority of England and Wales under an amber heat health alert, its second-highest level, warning of significant effects across health and social care services, including a rise in deaths, particularly among seniors.
Scientists have been unambiguous about the cause. One study published on Tuesday concluded that the extraordinary temperature spikes are primarily attributed to human-driven climate change, which is making heat waves more frequent, more deadly and more prolonged.
Where Cyprus stands
While the island's May temperatures currently sit within their normal range, the broader trend lines are deeply concerning. The Eastern Mediterranean is experiencing warming at nearly double the global average rate, with average temperatures over land projected to increase by 1 to 3 degrees Celsius in the near future, 3 to 5 degrees by mid-century, and 3.5 to 7 degrees by the end of the century compared to the historical reference period.
The Cyprus Institute's climate research division has provided evidence that the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region is a climate change hotspot, with model output indicating mean temperature rises of about 1 to 3 degrees in the next three decades, 3 to 5 degrees by mid-century and 3.5 to 7 degrees by the end of the century. According to analysis by the Cyprus Institute, extreme heat events in the Eastern Mediterranean will far exceed average summer temperatures and are more likely to approach the maximum temperatures felt in Nicosia, around 43 degrees Celsius, with those events lasting not days but weeks or even months as the region continues to heat up.
During the 2024 European heatwaves, the highest temperature recorded anywhere in Europe was 46.8 degrees Celsius, measured at Agios Vasileios in Cyprus in July of that year. Climate projections suggest that by 2026 to 2050, the number of summer days in Cyprus is expected to be two weeks per year longer than before, and the number of tropical nights one month per year longer.
Health, water and the wider picture
Cyprus's Health Minister Michael Damianos has described the island as a "front-line nation in the battle against climate change," noting that its impacts are multifaceted, ranging from record-high temperatures and prolonged heatwaves to devastating fires and water scarcity. That warning was delivered to WHO European Region delegates in 2024 and has only grown more urgent since.
Cyprus's Environment Commissioner Antonia Theodosiou cautioned in March 2026 that greenhouse gas concentrations in Cyprus have reached historic highs, and that water scarcity is "no longer a possibility of the future, but a reality" already affecting daily life, even as she acknowledged a recent reduction in emissions.
Under a 2-degree global warming scenario, Cyprus could face a water availability decrease of 20 to 30% from current levels, rising to 40 to 50% under a 4-degree scenario, as precipitation falls further in the already dry spring and summer months.
EU Commissioner Costas Kadis, speaking at a high-level conference in Nicosia in April, stressed that the Eastern Mediterranean region is experiencing faster-than-average warming, with marine heatwaves, acidification, and invasive species already disrupting ecosystems, fisheries and tourism-dependent communities.
The European State of the Climate Report for 2025, published last month, confirmed that Europe is the fastest-warming continent on Earth, warming at a rate of 0.56 degrees Celsius per decade over the past 30 years, more than twice the global average of 0.27 degrees per decade.
Sources: The New York Times, CNN, BBC, Cyprus Institute
