A joint declaration by the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should be seen as a warning to London over the cohesion of the United Kingdom, international relations expert Pambos Chrysostomou said on Tuesday.
Chrysostomou, head of the Research Service at the Cyprus University of Technology, told CNA that the three administrations share a common objective of securing greater autonomy from central government.
Their common position, he said, is that they want more autonomy and do not want "London to be calling the shots for us".
He said the political forces behind the Cardiff declaration include the Scottish National Party, which advocates Scottish independence and was behind the 2014 independence referendum, Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, which seeks Irish reunification, and Plaid Cymru in Wales, which supports greater political differentiation from London.
Clearer rules on referendums
Referring to calls for constitutional reforms contained in the joint declaration, Chrysostomou said the three administrations were seeking clearer rules governing referendums so that the process would not depend on approval from the central government in London. He noted that such approval was required for Scotland's 2014 referendum but is not necessary in the same way for Northern Ireland.
Asked about the factors driving the push for greater autonomy, Chrysostomou said they were "many and complex".
Brexit’s shadow
One factor, he said, was Brexit. He noted that around 65% of Scottish voters backed remaining in the European Union in the 2016 referendum and pointed to economic consequences, including reduced accessibility for European students.
A second factor was a strong local sense of autonomy from London, combined with the more nationalist policies pursued by some parties, particularly the Scottish National Party. He also highlighted the religious and constitutional dimensions of politics in Northern Ireland, where post-Brexit arrangements reshaped the relationship with the Republic of Ireland.
A third factor, he said, was what he described as a continuing weakening of London's authority as the centre of political power, reflected in changing electoral dynamics and growing challenges to the dominance of both the Conservative and Labour parties across Britain.
Chrysostomou added that migration could also be a contributing factor, as different parts of the United Kingdom experience the issue differently.
"All these developments bring back the discussion: Great Britain or little England?" he said.
"If a process of independence begins within Great Britain, this will radically change matters both for the role of the UK on the European continent and more generally. Are we close to something like that? No. But we are one step closer to a further weakening of the bonds that hold together the constituent parts of Great Britain."
Trump’s intervention
Commenting on remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump in support of a united Ireland, Chrysostomou said the intervention could be explained in the context of Trump's past disagreements with Britain's Labour government.
He noted Trump's criticism of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his previous expressions of support for Nigel Farage, adding that backing for "a united Ireland" amounted, in his view, to "a blatant intervention".
Drawing parallels with Cyprus, Chrysostomou said Irish reunification could provide a positive precedent for the island. However, he noted what he described as a paradox: while the United Kingdom is governed through a strong central state, efforts in Cyprus are focused on establishing a loose federal structure.
He also raised questions about the future of the British sovereign base areas in Cyprus should the United Kingdom undergo significant constitutional change, and whether any weakening of the union could further reduce Britain's influence in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Source: CNA
