The Two Scenarios for the Cyprus Issue – The Logic of Guterres and the Logic of Holguín

There are two approaches which, over time, could potentially prove complementary.

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María Ángela Holguín held two meetings last week with United Nations Secretary‑General António Guterres in New York, where she is currently based. She first met him on Wednesday and again on Saturday, as part of preparations for an initiative on the Cyprus issue expected to take place in July. This was recently revealed by Tufan Erhürman in Antalya, following his meeting with UN Deputy Secretary‑General Rosemary DiCarlo.

In Cyprus, the two leaders are not speaking of a new plan but of continuing the existing initiative. On the other hand, Secretary‑General António Guterres, during his recent visit to Turkey, discussed the issue with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and, according to information, received assurances that Turkey is ready for another attempt.

There are two different scenarios, which over time could potentially be complementary. The first involves discussions leading to a strategic agreement document, similar to the Anastasiades–Eroğlu joint declaration of 2014, which would reaffirm a federal solution while providing clear guidance on how such a solution would be implemented. The second concerns the submission of a ready‑made solution plan, providing for a loose federation to be implemented in stages.

The Secretary‑General appears to favour the first, more conservative approach, while María Ángela Holguín, who believes in the logic of a “shock” to a society that has grown complacent, advocates the second. What do you think?

Thoukis

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