A bleak political landscape is taking shape in Cyprus as 2025 slowly draws to a close and the country enters a long electoral period: parliamentary elections will take place in May, and a year and a half later, in 2028, the presidential elections. Political time has started counting down, placing pressure on the parties and on President Nikos Christodoulides.
How are political dynamics evolving, and what do they foretell for the future?
Two opinion polls conducted in November (RIK, 14/11, and OMEGA, 19/11) show some shifts but nothing strong enough to overturn established trends in the political scene. They reflect, on the one hand, the government’s inadequacy and, on the other, the continued fragmentation of the party landscape. If these polls are confirmed, the Parliament elected in 2026 will have even less cohesion for cooperation ahead of the presidential elections. As things stand, there are no easy answers regarding the 2028 electoral contest. The only certainty for President Nikos Christodoulides is that he is staying politically afloat simply because no credible challenger has yet emerged to confront him.
Inadequate
Almost three years after taking office, Christodoulides fails to convince, and public opinion rates him very negatively - a stark contrast to the powerful institution he represents, which until recently commanded a sense of respect and awe among citizens. Dissatisfaction with his performance begins at 68% (OMEGA 19/11) and reaches 75% (RIK 14/11). A large segment of the public believes Christodoulides is performing well below expectations. His positive ratings hover at around 25%. According to OMEGA, 68% say they are not at all or only slightly satisfied with the President, and nearly 75% express dissatisfaction with the government and his ministers. In the RIK poll, strong dissatisfaction with Christodoulides’ handling of domestic governance reaches 78%. Only 19% say they are satisfied.
Exceptional circumstances
Nikos Christodoulides managed to win the 2023 election under the particular circumstances of that time. The former president Nicos Anastasiades played a significant role, as did the split within DISY and AKEL’s presidential choices and structural weaknesses. Could these conditions be repeated in 2028? Christodoulides is no longer fresh or unblemished. He is judged strictly on his record, and the public sees that “something is wrong”, “it’s all words and promises”, “he’s not delivering”.
It is unlikely that public opinion will change significantly over the next two years, despite the one-dimensional information environment the Presidential Office has imposed on the public — especially through television channels. Events are continually embellished with statements and exaggerations, labelled as “historic” and “successes”, but in practice they are usually poor in substance — routine government management wrapped in extensive communication.
Like-minded circle
What is going wrong? Christodoulides has chosen to govern with a tight circle of trusted, like-minded associates who do not inspire confidence. Despite a favourable economic cycle, spectacular state revenues and continuous upgrades, citizens express frustration with his handling of the economy (66%), domestic governance (74%), and fulfilment of promises (70%). Remarkably, even on the Cyprus issue - where he faces no serious opposition and for years enjoyed the convenient excuse of Ersin Tatar’s intransigence - 59% are dissatisfied.
Christodoulides sees the numbers, and they trouble him. He needs to make substantial changes, but he fears losing the core advantages he currently holds. He is repeatedly hesitant — the cabinet reshuffle has been pending for months, but he is reluctant to upset the balance. For this reason, he does politics using the tools of the presidential office: the almost unchecked power to make appointments and open the public purse.
When he took office in March 2023, the public sector numbered 67,000 employees; it has now comfortably reached 72,250. Those holding top administrative posts belong to his close circle. His daily schedule is supported by a strong communications team that sets the news agenda. He is a constant presence at national events and church ceremonies reminiscent of another era. Recently, he has revived all manner of rhetoric about buying weapons and defence equipment, as if Cyprus were about to become a fortress.
The 25% strategy
None of this is accidental. Christodoulides is implementing a strategy designed to please a very specific audience: first, he fully satisfies the parties that support him, ELAM and the Church leadership, while simultaneously keeping the voters of the right-wing base of DISY attentive, hoping to capture them electorally at the right moment. This strategy aims to secure an aggregate support of around 25% - tightly consolidated and aligned with him - even if many within this bloc are unhappy with domestic governance. Election analysts estimate that 25% will be the threshold required for any presidential candidate in 2028 to reach the second round. The scenario assumes three or four major candidates, in which either the DISY or the AKEL candidate could be excluded from the run-off.
This is what Christodoulides needs - not to be a broadly accepted president with a respected record reflecting the majority’s aspirations and offering him a strong mandate for re-election, but rather to be the “one-quarter” candidate, backed by loyal supporters, admirers, and beneficiaries of power.
The absence of a challenger
Unintentionally, Christodoulides is creating a “template” for a president that forces the public to compare and form a clearer view of what they want for the future. A portion of those who voted for him already regret it. At a time when politics lacks charismatic figures, Cypriot society is looking for a grounded leader - methodical, focused on real problems, and above all capable of planning government work and overseeing its implementation. A rational leader, aware of difficulties, shaped by life and the private sector - not merely a product of the civil service or the diplomatic corps. Perhaps someone with stronger leadership qualities and fewer communication tricks. Certainly, however, a leader with decisiveness.
Three years in, Christodoulides’s opponent is “no one”. There is no political force acting as a counterweight, nor is there a political figure who stands out in public debate. Christodoulides is playing alone on the political field.
In theory, this could change after the parliamentary elections, when parties enter battle formation with their actual strength measured. Christodoulides’s greatest advantage is not his own strengths, but the inability of his opponents to mount a coherent opposition or to create a genuine momentum for change.