Analysts who spoke to Politis warn that Cyprus needs to be prepared if the US is serious about shaking things up in the region, promoting cooperation among long-time foes. Not all are convinced of increased US engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean, but they do agree that if the next Trump Plan comes to town, decision-makers can either be prepared or be bystanders to what comes next.
In an interview on Sunday, when asked about improving relations in the Eastern Mediterranean, US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack spoke of a “new momentum” of putting the past aside and “creating a new paradigm”, starting with Greece and Turkey.
'A new regional ordinance'
Speaking to Kathimerini, he referred to a conversation both he and new US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle had with US President Donald Trump, on whether the US could be the “mortar” that brings “these two bricks together in a new way, bit by bit”.
“It’s time. It has to happen. A new regional ordinance of dealing with each other has to happen. Hopefully America can be a bridge to having this happen. That’s our goal,” said Barrack.
Asked if a forum of sorts could serve as an effective roadmap for the region, the ambassador agreed that it must start with communication, driven by prosperity more than fear.
Regarding the US ‘formula’ that would connect energy resources from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean, Barrack noted that nation states have stood in the way of prosperity and a “blending of civilisations” since 1919. He argued that a new ‘style’ of prosperity could connect the fossil fuel resources from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean, where Greece and Turkey are the gateway.
“How can they not be open? How will you get rid of this political interference? You get rid of political interference by prosperity,” he said.
On whether Cyprus is important to addressing the issues in the region, he replied: “You can’t have an abscess in the middle of a healthy body. Every part of that body has to be healed. And Cyprus is a key part.”
Interest does not equal strategy
Some consider the likelihood small of increased US engagement to solve the long-standing and complex disputes in the region.
A government source told Politis that while Barrack is a political appointee – as opposed to career diplomat – and has a clear relationship with Trump, there is a long distance to cover before his views become institutionalised in Washington.
There is little on the ground – particularly within the Greco-Turkish dialogue – to suggest that the significant complications arresting regional cooperation and development are on their way to being solved.
The source added that US priorities now are Gaza and Ukraine, and after that possibly Syria – which faces a huge cashflow problem that creates a very unstable, potentially explosive situation.
International relations expert James Ker-Lindsay said many would like to see improved Greco-Turkish relations and a Cyprus solution, but the question is how the US approach would bring results, unlike past failed efforts.
“We know the issues. We know there are deep problems that have to be addressed. How will that be managed? What’s the substance?”
Ker-Lindsay argued that actors in the region should be concerned as to what the Americans specifically have got planned, given recent US efforts at resolving conflicts. He argued the latest US 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine was “offensive and a repetition of Russian talking points”. The Gaza plan was more interesting, but was just bullet points, without substance, he said, adding that after the ceasefire, talk to put flesh on the bones of the 20-point plan went quiet.
“I’d imagine Cyprus, Greece and Turkey would be extremely nervous if Trump is going to produce a 28-point plan for the East Med,” said Ker-Lindsay.
Regarding the idea of setting up a forum to discuss progress on major sticking points such as continental shelf, territorial sea, airspace, Cyprus, the analyst said:
“Trump wants results. He wants a Nobel Prize. He’s not interested in convening a talking shop. These maritime issues are very technical and legalistic. What is the document that will be put on the table? Where do we get positive results from?”
Trump’s ‘grand strategy’ for the region
On the other hand, energy analyst Charles Ellinas believes Trump is spearheading a “grand strategy for the region”, pointing to the recent P-TEC energy conference in Athens that had a heavy US presence.
“American policy is to remove these problems that are a huge irritation such as maritime disputes and the Cyprus problem,” he said.
Ellinas argued it was not incidental that all new US ambassadors to the region (Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Israel) are Trump political appointees. He argued that the strategy involved two energy corridors:
· North-South Corridor from Israel to Ukraine, with Greece as the focal point.
· East-West Corridor from the Caspian Sea to Italy with Turkey as the focal point.
US interest in these corridors focuses on two main elements: American energy giants involved in the region, and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Greece. The US would like to remove geopolitical risk from the equation, reducing costs and enabling implementation.
“These problems are very difficult to solve and require intervention,” said Ellinas, noting that Europe had zero presence in the region. “After Ukraine, Trump will turn to our region,” he said.
By not solving the problems, the countries of the region were inviting the risk of having a solution imposed on them, argued Ellinas. If Trump wants to promote American energy dominance, remove European vulnerability to Chinese influence in the region, he will set about removing the problems in his way, he said.
“He’s not going to consult us, he’s going to tell us.”
Track-Two diplomacy
Head of Politeia Think Tank Anna Koukkidis-Procopiou told Politis that Cyprus was not a hotspot requiring immediate attention, but it was a potential flashpoint in the wider region.
She noted that track-two level processes were underway with experts and technocrats from the region discussing certain scenarios, under the Eastern Mediterranean Initiative, which leads her to believe that “it will not be long before we have something tangible in the near future, something that relates exactly to what Mr Barak has said”.
Procopiou highlighted the importance of normalising Greco-Turkish relations to create a connectivity hub, “a conduit capable of transporting energy resources to the rest of the world,” while safeguarding the interests of Chevron and ExxonMobil.
On the Cyprus problem, she predicted a “political arrangement” rather than a solution, that includes a package of parameters on many complex issues. The Americans were more interested in an understanding between the parties on maritime and energy matters, rather than a political settlement.
She called on the Cypriot leadership to start working on alternative plans where they will be asked to “offer” Turkey something when the time came to develop a win-win scenario – “because we will be asked to concede something”.