UN Personal Envoy María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar called on the two leaders to deliver on confidence-building measures (CBMs) during Wednesday’s trilateral, noting that without progress, a ‘5+1’ enlarged meeting would be “very difficult”.
Speaking after a one-hour meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman on Tuesday, Holguín said preparations were made for the next day’s trilateral to be on substance.
“We are looking at both sides’ concerns about the way to resume talks,” said the UN envoy, adding that she expected Wednesday morning’s trilateral with the two leaders to make progress on CBMs.
“I hope that the leaders just deliver something on CBMs,” she said.
This will be the third meeting between President Nikos Christodoulides and Erhürman at the old Nicosia airport, and the second in the presence of Holguín.
‘Not much progress’ to date
Earlier in the day, Holguín met with President Christodoulides, after which she highlighted the lack of progress in the implementation of CBMs.
Speaking after the meeting, which lasted just under an hour, Holguín said that without progress, it would be “very difficult” to convene an enlarged meeting with guarantor powers.
“I am trying to push for more progress in confidence-building measures,” she said. “I hope there is progress. Until now there is not so much progress.”
In parallel with talks on CBMs during Wednesday’s trilateral, Holguín said the leaders will discuss the four proposals on methodology tabled by Erhürman.
“We can talk about methodology, the four points that Erhürman put on the table some months ago. […] And I hope there is progress. If not, it is very difficult to organise a meeting of the ‘5+1’ without progress,” said Holguín.
‘5+1’ depends on leaders
Asked if an enlarged meeting was still possible next month, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy replied: “It depends on them. It depends on the progress of the two leaders on the confidence-building measures.”
Government Spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said on Tuesday that Holguín briefed the president on her meeting in Brussels with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and on the efforts to create a conducive climate for resumption of talks.
Asked to comment on the UN envoy’s apparent dissatisfaction with the progress achieved to date, Letymbiotis said the Greek Cypriot side has shown a constructive stance, not only through proposals submitted, but also in their approach to proposals submitted by the other side.
Regarding the hold-up in progress, the spokesperson said there has been no change in the dialogue since the last ‘5+1’ meeting in July. He argued the Greek Cypriot side has tabled specific proposals, including a pedestrian crossing point, to improve the climate that have not been accepted to date.
He added that the government wants to see progress on CBMs but trust-building initiatives cannot replace substantive talks. The target remains a resumption of negotiations for a comprehensive settlement. Letymbiotis noted that Christodoulides will present his proposal on how talks can resume during the trilateral.
The political will of the sides will be judged at the negotiating table, he added.
Erhürman’s methodology proposals
On Erhürman’s package of proposals on methodology, the spokesperson said the president has given his response to this. He further noted that the issue of ‘political equality’ was recorded in a clear manner in the joint statement agreed at the last trilateral meeting on December 11, with reference to UN Security Council resolutions.
Meanwhile, the Turkish Cypriot leader has made agreement on his four-point methodology proposal a necessary step to resuming peace talks.
In his statement, published in the UNSG’s latest report on his Good Offices mission, Erhürman argued that past experience demonstrates the need to prepare the ground and build trust first.
He clarified that commitment to political equality includes a rotating presidency and effective participation (with at least one favourable vote). The other three points on methodology involve acceptance of past convergences leading up to Crans-Montana, ensuring the new process will be results-oriented and time-framed; and that Turkish Cypriots “will not be condemned” to their current status if the process fails despite their best efforts.
“This methodology constitutes, in no way, a set of pre-conditions,” he said while also noting that a new process “can only start once we agree in principle on our 4-point methodology in its entirety”.
Hope hangs on new crossings
According to reliable sources, the sides are at a point where certain elements can be agreed at the trilateral if the required political will and flexibility is shown by both leaders.
On CBMs, given the lack of convergence on other pending measures, such as the proposed solar energy park, it remains to be seen whether the leaders can move forward on opening new crossing points. The UN has indicated new crossing points would be a significant and achievable measure of progress, under the circumstances.
Given the ‘zero-sum’ approach to dialogue, crossing points can only open in even numbers – two or four – so each side feels they’ve gained something. Unless the Turkish army has lifted its objections to the Kokkina crossing, it is unlikely that Louroudjina-Lymbia will be opened either for now. That leaves the possibility of an announcement on the twin opening of Mia Milia and Athienou-Pyroi-Aglandja crossing points.
Further announcements on unilateral CBMs by each leader is not ruled out either.
On methodology, the leaders’ previously agreed up to a point on political equality, but further clarification from the Greek Cypriot side on a rotating presidency and positive vote seems unlikely unless the Turkish side reciprocates with assurances on all chapters, including security and guarantees, and property. At this stage, the easiest progress on Erhürman’s four points would be a joint statement on acceptance of all past convergences.