Christodoulos (Charles) Ellinas said he was cautiously optimistic that seabed surveys for the Crete–Cyprus electricity interconnector cable (GSI) would go ahead. Speaking to CNA, he said Turkey’s reactions in recent days suggested that “Turkey is proceeding in a measured way”.
“I am somewhat optimistic that the surveys will proceed, with some reaction from Turkey, but not so much as to cause huge problems,” he said.
Mr Ellinas described the way the two sides are responding as interesting. Greece, he said, eventually issued a Navtex, as it should have, and announced that the surveys would begin now, perhaps next week.
Turkey’s response has been measured to some extent, although it did what was expected: it issued an Anti-Navtex and sent drones over the area, he added.
Measured approach
According to Mr Ellinas, Turkey “does not appear to be reacting forcefully”. He referred to reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had said that everything was going well and that he believed the matter had been resolved.
“We do not know exactly what Mr Fidan meant, but it seems that Turkey is proceeding in a measured way,” Mr Ellinas said, adding that diplomatic contacts behind the scenes over the past two weeks appeared to have brought about some kind of solution.
He estimated that Turkey’s reaction would be limited, though the country would not back down. As he noted, the Turkish government cannot retreat because of domestic public opinion, having said a great deal to Turkish citizens about the issue and taken “forceful positions that are very difficult to walk back”.
“They are reacting, but in a limited way, and that is why I see the issue somewhat optimistically,” he said. He added, however, that “you cannot know for sure” and that the picture would become clearer next week.
Mr Ellinas said developments over the past two days, following the issuance of the Navtex, were interesting. Greece, for its part, had taken careful steps and made measured statements without making a show of the issue. The Greek prime minister, he added, had said that the country would keep a low profile and proceed when the time was right.
Optimism
According to Mr Ellinas, the time now appears to be right, since the surveys must be completed by the end of the year. Issuing the Navtex now and starting the work next week leaves time to finish the surveys before the end of the year, he said.
He recalled that the last time the vessel attempted to conduct surveys, Turkey did not intervene but sent frigates nearby. Greece considered the move dangerous, and the vessel left.
“Now, however, it seems that the surveys will go ahead,” he said. If they proceed without intervention or obstruction, “it will be an important development”.
Asked whether he expected Turkey to react on the ground, Mr Ellinas replied that, based on developments in recent days, he did not see that happening and said he was quite optimistic.
“I do not see it. I believe that what Turkey has been doing and saying over the past two days is enough for domestic consumption, but at the same time it does not appear to be worrying Greece or the others in a way that would stop them from proceeding,” he said, adding that certainty would depend on what happens.
Source: CNA
