Global alcohol consumption is expected to fall over the next decade, despite population growth and rising demand in India, according to new forecasts by drinks market research group IWSR.
The outlook points to a prolonged slowdown for the industry, which includes major producers such as Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev, the owner of Corona and Stella Artois. Drinks companies have been under pressure since 2023, with weaker sales and lower stock market valuations following the post-pandemic boom.
Producers say the cost-of-living crisis has weighed on consumer spending, while changing drinking habits, health concerns and the rise of weight-loss drugs may also be affecting alcohol consumption.
In its first ten-year forecast, covering 160 markets, IWSR said global alcohol volumes are not expected to stop declining before 2031. Even by 2035, consumption is projected to remain 1% below last year’s levels, despite an expected 9% increase in the global population of legal drinking age.
Spirits, beer and wine are all forecast to record lower volumes by 2035, as newer categories, including ready-to-drink cocktails, take a larger share of the market.
The decline is expected to be most visible in traditional major markets. IWSR forecasts that alcohol volumes in China and the United States, the world’s two largest markets, will fall by more than 18% by 2035. Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom are also expected to see lower consumption.
Growth is instead expected to come from emerging and developing markets. India is forecast to increase alcohol consumption by 38% over the next decade, overtaking the United States by 2032 to become the world’s second-largest alcohol market after China.
Mexico, Vietnam and Colombia are also expected to record rising demand, with projected growth of 13%, 15% and 26% respectively.
Source: AMNA
