Brazil Poll Shows Lula, Bolsonaro Neck and Neck in Runoff

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Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro by 47.7% to 47.4% in a potential second round of Brazil’s presidential election.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a potential second round of the presidential election, according to the results of a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll.

The left-wing candidate holds a marginal lead, although it falls within the poll's margin of error. Specifically, in a potential runoff, Lula would receive 47.7% of the vote, compared with 47.4% for the right-wing senator.

In the September 17 poll, former President Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son led Lula by 47.2% to 46.8%.

In the first round, Lula is shown receiving 45.8% in voting intentions. He is followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 43.4%, Renan Santos with 4.5%, Augusto Cury with 2.1% and Ronaldo Caiado with 1.3%.

A previous poll gave Lula 44.1% and Bolsonaro 41.7% in the first round.

If no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes in the October 4 election, the two leading candidates will proceed to a second round on October 25.

The AtlasIntel poll surveyed 5,015 voters between September 17 and 22. Its margin of error is one percentage point.

Source: CNA