There are still 15 full months until the 2028 presidential election. The field of candidates has yet to be established, as have the party alliances and other political partnerships that will support each candidacy. Ultimately, these alliances will play a decisive role in determining the prospects of each candidate in both the first and second rounds.
Opinion polls are undoubtedly an important scientific tool for establishing the views and opinions of participants on specific questions put to them.
It is equally true, however, that polls always capture the picture at a particular moment. They do not have fixed or lasting value, since circumstances evolve, facts change and, along with them, public opinion also shifts and adjusts.
This is a general rule, particularly when it comes to political or pre-election polls, such as those that are now beginning to emerge, albeit cautiously, in relation to the 2028 presidential election.
However, a political or pre-election poll can be considered serious, reliable and genuinely meaningful only when respondents are presented with realistic circumstances rather than theoretical or hypothetical scenarios.
The candidates and alliances have yet to emerge
There are still 15 full months until the 2028 presidential election. The field of candidates has yet to be established, as have the party alliances and other political partnerships that will support each candidacy. These will ultimately determine the prospects of each candidate in both the first and second rounds.
The final number of candidates in the first round, and above all who those candidates will be, will largely determine which two make it through to the decisive second round and compete in the final battle for the presidency.
The road to the ballot box is still long. Voters do not yet have candidates, programmes, alliances or any of the other essential elements before them to assess and weigh up.
Once these details are available and the electoral landscape has taken its final shape, voters will be able to make their decisions based on those factors, as well as on each candidate’s credibility. They will then decide whom to vote for and whom to entrust with the future of the country for the next five years.
Declaring favourites now is premature
In the absence of these essential details, and with so much time remaining before the presidential election, any conclusion about the eventual electoral outcome is misguided and, unquestionably, lacks objectivity.
Those rushing to anoint certain individuals as unassailable favourites are not only jumping the gun. They also risk being accused of attempting to steer public opinion and create a particular climate around the election.
