The possibility of a second wave of influenza in Cyprus remains open, Professor of Microbiology and Molecular Virology at the Medical School of the University of Nicosia, Dr Petros Karayiannis, told the Cyprus News Agency (CNA), noting that although the epidemiological picture remains stable for now, the data do not allow for complacency.
Speaking to CNA, Dr Karayiannis said infections continue to be recorded, without a serious surge that would place intense pressure on the health system. However, he added that, according to recent statements by competent authorities, “the health system is facing increased difficulties, mainly due to the need to isolate patients with different infections in separate wards”.
“Whether there will be a second wave with a noticeable surge, or whether the viruses will ‘mix’ and remain at a manageable level, cannot be known at this stage,” he said, highlighting the uncertainty characterising the current period.
Dr Karayiannis said the prospect of a second wave of influenza “is real”, as there has so far been no significant circulation of influenza B, which usually peaks around this time of year.
By contrast, he said, “influenza A strains are predominantly circulating, with the new K sub-strain being the most prevalent”.
Increased RSV cases among the elderly
He also noted particular concern over an increase in cases of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) among older people, describing it as an “unusual phenomenon”, as the virus typically affects young children and tends to appear earlier in winter, specifically towards the end of December.
“This year things are mixed up and the usual pattern has not been followed,” he said, attributing this picture in part to the new K sub-strain.
Asked whether a potential second wave is linked to the new sub-strain or to low population immunity, Dr Karayiannis explained that both factors apply.
As he said, there is no existing immunity in the community against the K sub-strain, as it is new, while current immunity mainly relates to previous influenza A strains. He stressed, however, that this immunity, combined with vaccination, provides significant protection.
He recalled that this year’s vaccines include two influenza A strains and one influenza B strain and, while they do not fully prevent infection, they significantly reduce the severity of illness and the risk of hospitalisation.
Flu may persist into March, say European scientists
Responding to whether vaccination still makes sense at this stage, Dr Karayiannis said “there is still time”, noting that it is mid-February and around 15 days are required for full immunity to develop.
He added that several scientists in Europe estimate that influenza may persist into March.
Regarding vaccine effectiveness, Dr Karayiannis cited data from the United States and the United Kingdom, according to which this year’s vaccine offers protection of up to 50%, compared with an average of 65% in other years.
“Even if someone becomes infected, symptoms are clearly milder and do not lead to severe illness,” he said.
He clarified that no differences in symptoms are expected compared with the first wave, with the exception of young children, who may also experience gastrointestinal symptoms.
As for high-risk groups, he noted that complications mainly affect the very elderly and vulnerable individuals.
According to the professor, “although flu-related deaths in Cyprus remain limited, an increase has been observed this year, while in other countries, such as Greece, 20 to 25 deaths are recorded each week”.
Regarding the preparedness of the health system, Dr Karayiannis said that based on information so far, readiness is in place and, if needed, beds will be made available from other specialties.
On COVID-19, he noted that cases continue to fluctuate throughout the year, as it is not a seasonal virus.
Finally, he stressed that the only way to reliably distinguish influenza from COVID-19 is through laboratory testing, as symptoms are similar and do not allow for a safe diagnosis without a test.