Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese writer Can Xue are the joint favourites with bookmakers for this year's Nobel Prize in Literature, which will be announced on Thursday. Both are offered at the same odds by British bookmaker Ladbrokes, followed by Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami, according to The Guardian.
Betting odds, not an official shortlist
The predictions are not an official list of nominees for the Nobel Prize. They reflect the betting market's estimates of who might win the award.
How the prize is awarded
The Nobel Prize in Literature is not awarded for a single book but for a writer's body of work as a whole. The Swedish Academy may single out certain works as particularly significant, but the award recognises the author's literary career in its entirety.
This year's prize carries prize money of 12 million Swedish kronor, about €1.1 million.
Anne Carson
Anne Carson, 76, is a poet, essayist and translator whose work often breaks down the boundaries between poetry and prose. Her books combine contemporary stories with ancient Greek literature and mythology.
Among her best-known works is "Autobiography of Red" (1998), a novel in verse that reworks the story of Geryon, the mythical creature slain by Heracles. Carson turns the ancient myth into a contemporary queer coming-of-age story.
Can Xue
Sharing the top spot in the betting is Can Xue, 73, the pen name of Chinese writer Deng Xiaohua.
Can Xue is known for her highly experimental writing, and her name has appeared among the Nobel favourites for several years.
Two of her books have been longlisted for the International Booker Prize, one of the most important international awards for translated fiction: the novel "Love in the New Millennium" and the short story collection "I Live in the Slums".
Haruki Murakami
Immediately behind Carson and Can Xue in the odds is Haruki Murakami. The 77-year-old Japanese author is probably the most internationally recognised name among the writers ranked highly in this year's betting.
His novels have been translated into dozens of languages, and his best-known works include "Norwegian Wood" and "Kafka on the Shore".
Gerald Murnane and Thomas Pynchon
Slightly further down are Australian writer Gerald Murnane, known for his distinctive and experimental prose, and American author Thomas Pynchon, one of the most important figures in postmodern American literature.
Atwood, Houellebecq and other leading names
The next group in the betting includes seven writers: Margaret Atwood, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Jamaica Kincaid, Lídia Jorge, Ludmila Ulitskaya and Michel Houellebecq.
Canadian author Margaret Atwood is one of the best-known writers on the list. Her work includes "The Handmaid's Tale", and she has won the Booker Prize twice, as well as Canada's prestigious Giller Prize.
Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza won the Pulitzer Prize in 2024 for "Liliana's Invincible Summer", a book about her 20-year-old sister, who was murdered by a former partner.
Spanish author Enrique Vila-Matas has built much of his work around blurring the boundaries between the novel, the essay and the act of literary writing itself. His book "Mac and His Problem" was longlisted for the International Booker Prize in 2020.
Jamaica Kincaid, who was born in Antigua and lives in the United States, is the author of works including "Annie John", "A Small Place" and "Lucy". Her books focus on themes such as family relationships, colonialism and its imprint on societies and personal lives.
Other names in the betting
The betting lists also include Norwegian writer Karl Ove Knausgaard, Australian author Alexis Wright, Irish novelist Colm Tóibín, Argentine writer César Aira, as well as Deborah Levy, Don DeLillo, Emmanuel Carrère, Leila Aboulela, Michael Ondaatje, Mircea Cărtărescu and Salman Rushdie.
Announcement and recent winners
The winner will be announced on Thursday at 14:00 Cyprus time.
In 2025, the Nobel Prize in Literature was awarded to Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai. Previous winners include South Korean author Han Kang, Norwegian writer Jon Fosse, French author Annie Ernaux and Tanzanian-born novelist Abdulrazak Gurnah.
With information from The Guardian
